Attachments
The EWIWG delivered a thorough presentation on early warning information to the cluster partners. Below, you'll find the key highlights from the presentation.
o El Niño, which is now moderate in intensity, is expected to remain the dominant ENSO state into the northern hemisphere of spring of 2024 before transitioning to neutral. By July-September 2024, La Niña becomes the most probable category, with a likelihood of 58%. o Precipitation: Since the beginning of the year starting from January 2023- March 2024, there was a likely chance of above average precipitation in most of Afghanistan. Between December 2023 and January 2024, the country experienced below average precipitation, however, February has been great in terms of precipitation all over the country. and largely reduced the precipitation deficit throughout the country.
o Snow Depth: Positive snow depth experienced as compared to the last year for this period. o Soil Moisture: Soil moisture has significantly improved compared to the previous week, but still, there is some deficit in northern, western, and southern provinces of the country. As the temperature gets slightly warm, the snow will start melting and water will infiltrate to the ground which will improve soil moisture and it will make the land ready for spring cultivation.
o Temperature: During the whole year, it was forecasted above average temperature, but from 4th week of the February to March 4, it was forecasted below average temperature all over Afghanistan, which is seems a good sign because, there will not be a rapid snow melting and the country will not be experiencing flash floods. o Inflation: Food inflation followed the same trend and declined from +26% in June 2022 to -14 percent in November 2023. The persistent deflation has been credited to several factors, including improved supply, the appreciation of the AFN against the USD and increased humanitarian support