Attachments
The Early Warning Information Working Group (EWIWG) presented a comprehensive overview of early warning information to the cluster partners. Here are the key highlights from the presentation.
➢ Precipitation: rainfall for the 2023/24 winter wet season, from October 2023 to March 2024, is most likely to be below average, with areas with average values. Average precipitation is most likely to occur from March to May 2024, during the wet spring season. Spring rains are expected to have normal timing and distribution, with minimal adverse impact on typical agricultural activities through flooding.
➢ Temperature: Above average daily mean temperatures are most likely through September 2024. Extreme temperatures during May-July and July-September (upper quintile) are 2-3 times more likely than climatology. The consequences of the above-average temperature may be moisture stress in rainfed crops and rangelands and reduced water availability, mainly in the downstream areas that may experience extended dry spells.
➢ Snow Water Volumes: Given below-average antecedent precipitation and current snow water volumes, below-average snow water volumes are expected in the coming months. However, there is more snow than in 2023, given recent accumulations due to above-average precipitation in February and March. Above-average temperatures will likely result in an early snow melt through May 2024.
➢ Wheat planting: Farmers are expected to use the spring window to complete the wheat planting process this season. The success of the coming cropping season depends on timely and welldistributed precipitation in the coming months & the availability of irrigation water in the summertime. ➢ Rangeland vegetative conditions during the 2024 spring (March-May) are expected to improve and most likely to be near average in most areas, with some below-average areas due to the persistence of current conditions and above-average temperatures. During summer (JuneSeptember), most areas will turn to below-average, due to below-average cumulative 2023/24 precipitation, above-average temperatures, or both.
➢ Possible risks: The combination of average to above-average precipitation and above-average temperatures during the remainder of the 2023/24 agricultural season may elevate the risk of yellow rust affecting the yield and productivity of wheat in the eastern, northern, northeastern, and southern provinces. Moreover, concerns exist about the risk of locust infestation in crops and pasture areas. The anticipated near-average to average cumulative precipitation in 2024 will enhance vegetation conditions, which may facilitate the growth of locust populations in the coming months, particularly in the northern and northeastern provinces.
➢ Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): A worsen NDVI mainly in northern and eastern and central parts of the country is seen. The land surface Temperature (LST) has reduced significantly in the southern and western. This means that due to the negative LST the vegetation could be impacted.
➢ Soil Moisture: Currently below average and better than last year but expected to improve given soil moisture and expected precipitation.
➢ Exchange Rate: After its surge in January 2022, the value of AFN started to consistently appreciate against the USD during the year 2023 and remains relatively stable, hovering around AFN 70-74 per USD since November 2023. The monthly average exchange rate between AFN and USD was recorded at AFN 71.4 per 1 USD during March 2024 and the weekly average rate in third week of April stands at AFN 72.1 per 1USD.