Afghanistan Key Message Update, March - September 2026: Emergency outcomes expected to persist until the 2026 harvest begins

Key Messages

• Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to continue through April in Faryab, Ghor, and Daykundi, driven by the combined impacts of drought, weak economic conditions, and limited income-earning opportunities. As the lean season persists through April, households face limited income-earning opportunities, eroded purchasing power, and are entirely reliant on market purchases to access food, preventing a critical proportion of households from covering their minimum food needs. Households are likely resorting to negative coping strategies such as selling their last female livestock, early marriage of underage girls, selling homes or land, taking out high-interest loans, or begging.
• Outcomes are expected to relatively improve to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Faryab, Ghor, and Daykundi from May through September, when the wheat harvest becomes available. However, households will continue to face high debt burdens and weak purchasing power, despite anticipated harvest-driven improvements in access to food and income. Own-produced food and Income from agricultural labor during the wheat harvest are expected to remain insufficient to fully prevent food consumption gaps, with poor households likely continuing to adopt negative coping strategies, including reducing meal size, selling productive assets, and accumulating further debt.
• Elsewhere in Afghanistan, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to remain widespread, as households face the cumulative impacts of drought on agricultural productivity. The continued influx of returnees has continued to constrain labor markets and increase market demand for food, thereby weakening labor income and increasing food prices. However, the wheat harvest, which begins in May, is expected to provide households with improved access to food and income. At the same time, income from livestock sales is expected to remain elevated through Eid al-Adha, resulting in improvements between June and September.
• Precipitation during the October to May rainy season has been below average across much of the country to date, despite localized areas of average to above-average rainfall. However, late January snowfall, average spring wheat planting, and anticipated average spring precipitation from March to May are expected to support crop development during a critical stage. As a result, the 2026 wheat harvest is expected to be near average at the national level, with average production in surplus-producing areas in the south, east, and southeast offsetting below-average production in the north and northeast. In the north and northeast, the combination of below-average winter wheat planting and below-average winter precipitation is reducing net production prospects, despite the anticipated improvements of spring wheat.
• Pasture conditions for livestock are expected to remain minimal through March before seasonally improving from April through September. Snowmelt and spring rains are anticipated to lead to near-average spring pasture in northeastern, central, and central highland areas. These improvements are expected to support seasonal improvements in livestock body conditions, though outcomes will vary by region. In northwestern, western, and southeastern areas, where pasture conditions are expected to remain below average, livestock body conditions are likely to remain below average. While pasture availability is expected to be better than last year across much of the country, above-average temperatures and the cumulative impact of multiyear drought are likely to constrain the extent of improvement.
• The ongoing conflict with Pakistan continues to moderately disrupt trade flows and reduce access to cross-border labor opportunities, constraining household food access in border regions. Despite a recent pause due to Eid al-Fitr, airstrikes and border closures persist. Additionally, an increase in conflict-induced displacement in eastern, southeastern, and southwestern provinces is placing additional pressure on host communities and local markets. As a result, displaced and poor households face increased barriers to food access and greater reliance on negative coping strategies, such as spending emergency savings, distress sales of productive assets, and increases in child labor. However, emergency assistance from local NGOs and WFP, as well as community support, is likely mitigating the impact on acute food insecurity outcomes, particularly among internally displaced populations.
• In February, staple food prices, particularly wheat and vegetable oil, have remained broadly stable compared to the prior month; however, according to WFP price monitoring data, both wheat and vegetable oil prices have increased since October 2025, by 17 and 13 percent, respectively. Vegetable oil price increases are attributed to ongoing disruptions from the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict. Wheat price increases reflect higher transportation costs from longer alternative trade routes and above-average market demand driven by fully exhausted food stocks during the lean season. As a result, cumulative price increases are limiting poor households' ability to purchase wheat and vegetable oil at markets.
• The ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses a risk of disruption to the Iran trade corridor, which accounts for approximately 31 percent of imports and serves as a major transit route. An estimated 25 to 30 percent of imports enter through the Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports alone. Disruptions to these routes would likely tighten market supply, drive up transportation costs, and increase prices for key food and non-food commodities, including those transiting from third-party trade partners such as India.
• Agricultural labor opportunities will remain atypically low through May but are expected to improve during the main harvest from June through August. However, pressure from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict with Pakistan could increase prices of essential agricultural inputs, such as fertilizer, limiting better-off households’ ability to hire labor. Similarly, the increase in prices of construction materials will further reduce casual labor opportunities, as many households rely on construction labor for income. Combined, these impacts will add further pressure on household access to cash income to purchase food countrywide, which is already low due to the weak labor market and high reliance on markets during the lean season.