Near-average wheat harvest improving households access to own foods
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to be widespread as a result of the harvest and many households access own foods. However, areas of Badghis where many households are still recovering from the drought, undocumented returnees, and displaced households are expected to continue to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). As winter starts in October/November across much of the country, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are most likely to emerge as many households are expected to rely on markets with below average incomes.
Conflict and insecurity remain widespread in 2019, although the number of events is lower than the same time last year. However, conflict continues to threaten lives and disrupts livelihoods with over 34,000 people displaced through July in 2019 and nearly 2,000 displaced in July. In addition, returnees from Pakistan and Iran, specifically undocumented returnees have limited options for re-establishing livelihoods and participating in the ongoing agriculture season. Many undocumented returnees and IDPs, have few assets and are highly dependent on the limited assistance from communities and humanitarian agencies.
Due to the favorable weather conditions, fruit and melon production is expected to be above average. In addition, pasture conditions are above average favoring the regeneration of livestock body conditions and dairy production. Many poor households are selling own production and livestock products on the markets for income, however prices for these goods continue to be below average. Livestock prices are expected to increase for a short period of time in August.