Countrywide, food and income constraints are expected to be most severe during the February to April lean season. Access to food and income will most likely be the most constrained in Faryab, Ghor, and Daykundi provinces, where Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to emerge in February, as households face extreme difficulty accessing food. Poor households in these provinces have no food stocks from their own production and are anticipated to be completely market reliant for food, with extremely poor purchasing power. Despite anticipated stability in food prices, household income is expected to remain limited as agricultural and casual labor opportunities are seasonally sparse. Poor households will most likely adopt negative livelihood coping strategies such as selling their last female livestock, early marriage of daughters, and begging to access food.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to remain widespread through May in the rest of the country as households face difficulty meeting their food and non-food needs due to the impacts of the multiyear drought, declines in remittances, and limited labor opportunities amid a high number of returnees and a stagnant economy. Poor households will most likely depend heavily on markets for food; however, purchasing power will likely remain below average. In Crisis (IPC Phase 3) areas, poor households will likely adopt crisis coping strategies, such as reducing food intake, selling productive assets, and skipping meals. In southern and eastern regions, households are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes as they face difficulty meeting their non-food needs associated with stable income from vegetable and fruit production, casual labor opportunities, and remittances sent from Gulf countries. Food security conditions are expected to improve countrywide starting in May as the 2026 harvest begins, improving household access to food and income.
Average cumulative precipitation is expected from February to May 2026 due to the anticipated transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions between January and March. However, international forecast models indicate equal chances of average, below-average, or above-average precipitation across most of the country.
The influx of Afghan returnees from Iran and Pakistan continues, straining resources and increasing competition for labor opportunities, despite deportation deadlines passing. Between December 1 and January 31, around 507,000 people were forcibly returned from Iran and Pakistan, a 19 percent decrease compared to the same period last year. Conversely, around 141,000 people left for either Iran or Pakistan, marking a 73 percent decrease compared to the same period last year. However, deportations have been declining since November, despite nearly 300,000 Afghans returning per month.
Staple food prices increased marginally in December 2025 compared to November. Wheat prices increased by 5 percent compared to November due to higher domestic demand and stockpiling ahead of the peak lean season. Most goods, including staple food commodities, continue to flow through trade routes from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, and a strong Afghani, supporting market stocks and availability. Vegetable oil prices increased the most, by 8 percent, driven by the closure of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The border closure has disrupted trade and raised transportation costs for commodities typically traded with Pakistan, such as rice, vegetables, and oil. Through April, market demand is expected to increase, particularly in rural areas where household stocks from own production are being depleted due to drought-related production declines. Combined with higher transportation costs for moving staple foods to remote areas, staple food prices are expected to increase slightly through the lean season.
Labor opportunities are below average for this time of year due to increased competition for casual work and reduced hiring for agricultural labor. Four consecutive years of drought have reduced income for landowners, who can no longer afford to hire workers. Unskilled daily wages declined by 7 percent compared to last year but remained similar to the previous month. The amount of wheat that can be purchased with a day's wages from unskilled labor decreased by 17 percentbetween November and December 2025, and decreased by 36 percent compared to December 2024. Similarly, the amount of wheat that can be purchased with a day of casual labor wages decreased by 6 percent between November and December 2025, and by 22 percent compared to December 2024. This is likely driven by a decline in labor opportunities and a slight increase in wheat prices.
