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Overview
Despite the prospects of a favorable productive season, high levels of acute food insecurity persist in Afghanistan due to the impact of repeated shocks on a fragile socio-economic landscape, marked by deep-rooted economic, social, physical, and environmental vulnerabilities.
In the current period (March to April 2025), an estimated 12.6 million people (27 percent of the total population of 46 million people) faced high levels of acute food insecurity classified in IPC Phase 3 and above (Crisis or worse) and are in urgent need of humanitarian food assistance. Of these, about 1.95 million people (4% of the total population) are classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and around 10.64 million people (23% of the total population) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
Food insecurity is mainly driven by a fragile economy, a significant cut in humanitarian assistance and environmental disasters, notably flooding and drought. Endemic poverty and the limited job opportunities still leave many people in a highly vulnerable state. The food security situation is worst in Badakhshan with 40 percent of the population classified in IPC Phase 3 and above, followed by Balkh, Bamyan, Daykundi, Ghor, Jawzjan, Nimroz, and Sar-e-Pul all with 35 percent of their populations classified in IPC Phase 3 and above.
During the projection period (May to October 2025), which coincides with the harvest season in Afghanistan, an estimated 9.52 million people (21 percent of the population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). This includes 1.6 million people (4% of the total population) classif ied in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and around 7.93 million (17 percent of the total population) classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
The year-on-year improvements are mainly due to the compounded benef its of an improved macro-economic situation, reduced conflict and the aggregate humanitarian food assistance and emergency agricultural support provided. Precipitation, ground water and soil moisture in February and March were favourable for winter crop growth and spring season cultivation. However, repeated droughts, natural disasters, and the worsening impacts of climate change have further strained livelihoods and food security, especially for those already in need of year-round assistance. Recent aid cuts of 40 percent will have a significant negative impact on the most vulnerable families. Due to funding cuts, in the projection period, only 625,000 people on average, out of the almost 1.6 million expected to experience large food gaps (IPC Phase 4) will receive HFSA. The cuts will severely hinder the planned scale-up of HFSA this coming winter—a time when snow will isolate communities and hunger will be at its peak. The impact will be especially devastating for the most vulnerable households and individuals, who rely entirely on assistance as a lifeline.