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Afghanistan

Afghanistan: IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis - September 2024 - March 2025 (Published on 7 January 2025)

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Overview

Afghanistan continues to experience marginal improvement in the food security situation since 2021, despite facing a series of significant challenges over the past few years. These include the political transition in August 2021, impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and multiple natural disasters like floods, earthquakes, and droughts. Additionally, the country is managing the influx of Afghan returnees from neighbouring regions, all of which continue to strain resources and impact food security.

In the current period (September to October 2024), an estimated 11.6 million people (25 percent of the total population of 46 million people) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) and are in urgent need of humanitarian food assistance. Of these, about 1.8 million people (4 percent of the total population) are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and around 9.8 million people (21 percent of the total population) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Out of the 34 provinces analysed, 31 are classified in Phase 3, while only three—Paktya, Khost and Ghazni—are classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed). This slight improvement in the food security situation can be attributed to improved agricultural production, the scale of humanitarian food and emergency agricultural assistance in 2023/2024 and improved household purchasing power, among other factors.

During the projection period (November 2024 to March 2025), which coincides with the peak of the lean season, despite improvements compared to previous analyses, 14.8 million people (32 percent of the total population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) and will be in urgent need of humanitarian food assistance and emergency agriculture support. This includes 3.1 million people (7 percent of the total population) classified in Phase 4 and 11.6 million (25 percent of the total population) in Phase 3. Overall, the number of people projected to be food insecure would be 1.1 million fewer than during the same period last year (November 2023 to March 2024), including half a million fewer people in Phase 4. This slight improvement in the food security situation can be attributed, among other factors, to the humanitarian food and emergency agricultural assistance and above-average agricultural harvests during the 2024 season, according to the Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL). In parallel to the IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) analysis, an IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) analysis was also conducted under the leadership of the Nutrition Cluster. Overall, the two analysis results align closely, with only a one-phase classification difference observed between both scales for both the current and/or the projection period in 13 out of the 34 provinces.

Since the end of 2021 when food insecurity peaked with 22.8 million people classified in IPC Phase 3 or above, after the political transition and the economic turmoil, households have continued to report improvements in their capacity to meet basic needs. Afghanistan’s agricultural and subsistence economy provided some resilience in rural areas, food prices decreased from their peaks due to the above-average harvests in 2024, the Afghani appreciated which reduced food import costs, and global food prices experienced a general decline. Consumer prices in Afghanistan dropped 6.6 percent in July 2024 compared to the same period the previous year. The deflationary trend, which started in April 2023, continued into 2024, driven by the economic stagnation leading to high unemployment rates, weak consumer demand and high household debts.

However, food prices currently are still higher than the long-term average, including levels seen before COVID-19. The overall economic activity remains depressed and unemployment rates high, and Afghanistan’s economic outlook remains uncertain, with the threat of stagnation looming large until at least 2025, according to the World Bank. The Afghan banking sector also continues to be dysfunctional due to constraints on international transfers and concerns about liquidity and solvency.

Additionally, remittances are expected to reduce, and the labour market will struggle to keep up with the labour supply particularly due to the influx of returnees from Pakistan and a possible forced return of Afghan migrants from Iran.

However, food insecurity levels will remain higher compared to the period pre-COVID-19 and the political transition in 2021. While the 2024 wheat harvests were above average, their yield still fell short of national levels, indicating a need for wheat imports or complementary humanitarian food assistance.

Expected La Niña conditions in 2025 will lead to below-average precipitation and harvests, compounding the existing wheat deficit. Coupled with food consumption gaps and continued economic fragility, these conditions underscore the continued importance of a multifaceted approach to address the prevailing food security needs, including sustained humanitarian assistance, support for emergency agriculture activities, and investment into agricultural and economic infrastructure across the country.

In 2024, 33 out of 34 provinces were struck by some environmental disaster. Afghanistan is prone to earthquakes, flooding, drought, landslides, and avalanches. Over four decades of conflict, coupled with environmental degradation and insufficient investments into disaster risk reduction have contributed to food insecurity and increased vulnerability of the Afghan people to cope with the sudden shocks of environmental disasters. These shocks affected various households often in combination or year-after-year. The most affected and vulnerable population groups are female-headed households, especially given the further restrictions on women to work and move in general. Children are also among the most vulnerable in the communities.