Afghanistan Humanitarian Response Plan: 2022 End-Year Monitoring Report of Financing, Achievements and Response Challenges (January - December 2022)

Part 1

Overview

Summary

Between January and December 2022, humanitarian partners have reached 26.1 million people with at least one form of assistance which includes 22.3 million people with food and livelihoods support; 13.3 million people with access to health care (consultations and treatment); 11 million people with water, sanitation and hygiene assistance; 6.2 million children and pregnant and lactating women with support to prevent and address acute malnutrition; 5.7 million people with protection assistance; 2 million people with emergency shelter and household items; and 554,400 children with access to education and education materials. Despite the overall reach exceeding the target by 2.2 million people (the original HRP target is 24.4 million), this was done in part by reducing levels of assistance to the less vulnerable, seasonal, and geographic prioritization and use of lower cost/intensity interventions.

The response was enabled by a combination of new funding in 2022 ($3.2 billion) and funds carried over from 2021 ($542 million). Despite the historic scale of response so far in 2022 (including in previously inaccessible areas), underfunding has meant that people’s needs were not reduced, and they have not been able to start the path towards stability and independence. In fact, there are more people today in Afghanistan who rely on humanitarian assistance as the only source of survival.

The outlook remains grim with climate forecasts indicating an imminent triple dip La Niña phenomenon to extend the dry-spell / drought-like conditions for the third year in a row. This is on the backdrop of surging urban debt, financial constraints, and rural inability to access services, with a notable reduction in access to water. Meanwhile, external factors (e.g., war in Ukraine and floods in Pakistan) are driving commodity prices even higher. Millions of people who received one form of assistance will continue to require multiple rounds of support over the course of the year to survive. This often includes more tailored packages designed specifically to meet individual and/or household needs in a more comprehensive manner.

Partners will make concerted efforts to provide more integrated support in underserved areas, in line with the nature and scale of multi-sectoral needs now present while considering seasonal risks. The humanitarian community’s ability to continue to stay and deliver life-saving assistance will be contingent on flexible funds, enabling financial systems and assurances of aid worker safety and principled humanitarian response. This includes ensuring that women can participate in society both as people in need of assistance and as humanitarian staff to enable humanitarians to reach 50 per cent of the population.

This end-of-year report captures progress against the needs and targets identified in the 2022 Afghanistan Humanitarian Response Plans.

Food Insecurity and Malnutrition

Over 2022, more than 21 million people received direct food assistance as in-kind or cash, preventing people’s food insecurity from deteriorating and responding to acute needs from displacement and disaster. Nonetheless, the levels of food assistance were below the initial targets. Approximately one-third of beneficiaries received up to 2 months of assistance, a third received up to 4, and a third received from 5-12. Despite the limitations on sustaining food assistance for everyone in IPC 3 and 4+ areas, the number of people in IPC 4+ was successfully reduced from 8.7 million to 6.1 million, still the second highest globally as of December 2022, but an indicator that the prioritization of limited foods security resources has been effective. In September and October 2022 (the post-harvest season), nearly 17 million people in Afghanistan experienced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). The main drivers of acute food insecurity include a series of droughts impacting crops and livestock production, other natural hazards like flooding, the continuation of widespread unemployment, a severe economic crisis and increasing food prices in the country. A significant absolute amount of humanitarian food assistance (HFA) was provided during the current period, covering roughly 23 per cent of the estimated national population.

In line with the lean season patterns, between November 2022 and March 2023, deterioration in food security is expected. The number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is projected to increase to 19.9 million, or 46 per cent of the population, considering the planned HFA assistance for the same period. If sufficient HFA is not provided this number may be higher. As noted, some 13.8 million people will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 6.1 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), the second highest globally as of the start of 2023.

According to the 2022 National Nutrition Survey (NNS), the prevalence of acute malnutrition in Afghanistan is high at 10.3 per cent which is above regional and global averages. Similarly, chronic malnutrition resulting from the long-term effects of underlying determinants of malnutrition, is above regional and global averages, with all assessed provinces reporting high (8 provinces) or very high (25 provinces) prevalence among children under age 5, as per WHO classification. This includes both rural and urban areas, with urban Kabul expected to be in IPC 4 for malnutrition.

Livelihood and Economic Shocks

Afghanistan’s economic crisis is widespread, with more than half of households experiencing an economic shock in the second half of 2022. The economy immediately went into free fall, with the disruption to markets, financial and trade mechanisms, the freezing of $9.5 billion in central bank reserves, loans, and the sudden suspension of direct development aid.

More than half of households reported having experienced an economic shock in the six months prior to data collection (54 per cent). 2022 Whole of Afghanistan Assessment (WoAA) findings also show regional disparities in the extent of the economic crisis, with the Southern Region, reporting the highest proportion of households experiencing an economic shock (81 per cent), with lower numbers in the Northern and Central regions (the lowest – but still notable – in the Central Highlands at 37 per cent). Most critically, the two main reported effects of the economic crisis were limited/reduced access to food (88 per cent) and taking on debt (73 per cent), highlighting the direct and negative consequences of economic shocks on household well-being. This both exacerbates pre-existing and chronic levels of poverty and further erodes resilience.

The large-scale humanitarian food response has allowed many households to avoid falling into more acute needs. This emergency measure highlights the Afghan population’s vulnerability to absorb further shocks, particularly emerging from winter at the start of the year, followed by the lean season. Low levels of household resilience provide a limited and fragile buffer.

Displaced households, particularly in urban areas, struggle to absorb the cost of rent, with fewer job opportunities available due to the drought and economic shocks. Many people are unable to afford rent and fear eviction. In provinces such as Balkh and Kabul, the rate of sudden evictions increased in 2022, increasing household vulnerability. Economic shocks also increased household debt and the adoption of negative coping mechanisms.

Internal Displacement and Cross-Border Returns

Return figures of undocumented returnees from neighbouring countries for the first quarter of 2022 increased compared with the end of 2021, with deportations from Iran increasing month on month. While returnee households’ sectoral needs are slightly less severe than that of other displaced population groups, WoAA findings show that their needs situation deteriorated between 2021 and 2022 in several sectors.

The WoAA 2022 shows the shelter needs of recent returnees are high, with 85 per cent of households needing shelter repairs; while 82 per cent of households are using inadequate heating sources for winter; and some 70 per cent require basic household items. Indicators from the WASH sectors also highlight deteriorating living conditions for the returnee population group since 2021. Fifteen per cent of recent returnee households reported that the accessed water sources are inadequate (unprotected spring or surface water), the highest of any displaced population group. Additionally, the proportion of recent returnee households reporting they do not own soap grew from 18 per cent in the 2021 WoAA to 29 per cent in the 2022 WoAA.

While recent returnees appear less affected than other population groups by protection incidents with the lowest share of households reporting a member experiencing a protection incident in the three months prior to data collection (16 per cent compared with 21 per cent of all households)3 , all children living in vulnerable households returning from the cross border as undocumented migrants or returnees are at risk of violence, abuse, and exploitation. Regarding health, the WoAA results suggest that returnees face increasing difficulties in accessing health services. Nearly one quarter (23 per cent) of recent returnee households reported having to travel one hour or more to access the nearest healthcare facility, a proportion higher than that of other displaced population groups and a threefold increase when compared with 2021 figures (7 per cent).

Natural Hazards/Climate Change

Afghanistan is highly prone to natural hazards, whose frequency and intensity are exacerbated by the effects of climate change, increasing humanitarian needs and structural limitations in mitigating disaster impact. The number of atypical sudden-onset disasters, such as floods and earthquakes, was higher in 2022 than in preceding years and the scenario anticipates that these patterns may be the norm moving ahead.

Afghanistan experienced natural disasters in 2022 towards the upper end of the anticipated scenario for impact, affecting more than 228,000 people in 33 out of 34 provinces between January and August alone. There were three major earthquake incidents in 2022 that caused loss of life and damage to houses and property: in Badghis Province in January, South-eastern Region in June, and Kunar Province in September.

In addition, unseasonal flooding occurred between July and September, affecting 21 provinces. And while the spring season saw the lowest levels of flooding in 2022 compared with the previous five years, a surge in atypical floods during the summer season (June to September) caused substantial disruption to agricultural livelihoods, affecting crops before harvest, and otherwise disrupting regular cycles. The flooding events were concentrated around the Southern Region (88 per cent of households in Zabul Province reported flooding in the previous six months) and South-eastern Region (75 per cent of households in Ghazni Province), reflecting the impact of atypical flooding over the June to August summer season.

Severe needs from drought have reached a crisis point. As of December 2022, Afghanistan was experiencing the first triple-dip impact of La Niña globally since 1998-2001, which was also a period of multi-year drought and prominent levels of food insecurity in Afghanistan. The forecast is at least a 50 per cent chance of La Niña continuing from January to March 2023 before returning to ENSO neutral. The 2022 WoAA identified drought as the most frequently reported shock experienced in the six months prior to data collection, and the prolonged drought is resulting in the drying of surface water sources such as springs, and a significant drop in groundwater levels. As a result of the ongoing drought event and water crisis, the proportion of households experiencing barriers to accessing water rose from 48 per cent in 2021 to 60 per cent in 2022.

Earthquake

In the early hours of 22 June 2022, a 5.9 magnitude earthquake struck, affecting Patika and Khost Provinces, over 1,000 people were killed (including 230 children) and over 2,900 injured (including 591 children). The earthquake destroyed critical infrastructure – including homes, facilities, schools, and water networks – leaving areas that were already highly vulnerable before the earthquake, vulnerable to additional risks. Following assessments by Humanitarian partners, over 100,000 people were identified to need of humanitarian assistance, of which 18 per cent were considered vulnerable, including female-headed households, people with disabilities, those chronically ill, unaccompanied minors and elderly people, and families with more than eight people in the household. Khost and Patika provinces were highly vulnerable prior to the crisis, facing crisis levels of food insecurity and malnutrition as well as an acute watery diarrhoea (AWD) outbreak.

First responders on the ground, including the authorities, affected communities and humanitarian partners, launched an immediate response to the earthquake with available supplies. Within 24 hours following the earthquake, UN and NGO partners mobilised response efforts, with trucks of supplies on the roads headed to communities.

By 30 June, just eight days after the earthquake, the Emergency Earthquake Response Plan was launched requesting $110 million to cover the emergency needs from July to September 2022. Initially, the plan targeted 362,000 people, based on available data at the time, this was later revised to reflect the on-ground information from joint assessments teams to 100,000 people assessed to be in need. Thanks to the generosity of the donor community, by 31 October 2022 the emergency response effort had received $44 million. By the end of the emergency phase, September 2022, over 515,000 people had been reached with one form of humanitarian assistance in earthquake-affected areas. Recovery initiatives and sectoral-specific interventions have continued in the second phase of the response effort.

Following the emergency response phase, the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) requested a Lessons Learnt Review. Considering the change in Afghanistan’s context over the past year, the evaluation team was tasked to look at the system’s ability to scale up to sudden-onset emergency events and the preparedness planning in place to support future emergencies. Due to the country’s pre-existing vulnerabilities, the review aims to look at the systems currently in place to respond to these sudden events and proposed recommendations for future sudden-onset emergencies in Afghanistan.

A task team was formed at the beginning of November made up of representatives from UN Agencies, NGOs and Assessment and Analysis team members. The task team provided technical support to the Earthquake Lessons Learnt Review, helping to review the data coming from various sources and generating key recommendations for the HCTs' consideration to help the system to be better prepared for future sudden onset emergencies. The lessons learnt review looked at the following key aspects from the Earthquake Response: 1) Preparedness; 2) Response Capacity; 3) Leadership and Coordination; 4) Logistics and enabling factors; 5) Cross-cutting issues of protection, gender, and accountability to affected people and prevention of sexual exploitation and abuse.