Afghanistan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2025 (December 2024)

Executive summary

A shrinking protection space, a fragile economy, insufficient access to basic services, natural hazards and climate-induced shocks, as well as regional political dynamics continue to undermine the ability of Afghans to recover from 40 years of conflict. In 2025, almost half of the population – some 22.9 million people – will require humanitarian assistance to survive, due to limited capacity to meet both chronic and acute needs. Moreover, the sustained imposition of rights-related restrictions by the Taliban de facto authorities (DfA) have heightened protection risks among women, girls and boys, young people and other at-risk groups, limiting their access to essential lifesaving services and livelihood opportunities, deepening disparities and pushing them into further humanitarian need year after year.

Afghanistan’s economy contracted by almost one-third in the aftermath of August 2021, with political estrangement, an isolated financial system and drastically reduced development funding hampering recovery and limiting the DfA’s capacity to provide basic services and secure livelihoods. As a result, unemployment, underemployment, household debt and poverty remain widespread, afflicting around 48 per cent of the population, and severely restricting households’ ability to afford goods and services.1 This economic stagnation also impacts the humanitarian sector, where gaps in sustainable development, such as sub-standard and incomplete infrastructure, limited livelihood opportunities and weak healthcare and education systems, including maternal and reproductive health services, continue to create conditions for recurring humanitarian crises.

Seasonal and climate-related shocks, as well as natural disasters, further exacerbate humanitarian needs across Afghanistan, intensifying already precarious living conditions. The potential shift to a La Niña episode by early 2025 raises concerns over reductions in snowfall and rainfall, alongside warmer temperatures, which could lead to drought-like conditions in key rain-fed agricultural areas, particularly in the northeastern, northern and northwestern regions. La Niña also threatens the marginal improvement in water access experienced in 2024 due to heavy spring rains which alleviated drought-like conditions in many areas (Whole of Afghanistan Assessment (WoAA). Afghanistan nevertheless continues to face a water crisis, stemming from years of over-extraction, inadequate water resource management and insufficient groundwater recharge.

Despite noticeable improvements since the 2021/2022 winter season, hunger remains widespread with 14.8 million people, more than one-third of the population, facing acute food insecurity through March 2025. The cumulative effects of prolonged food insecurity, inadequate water and sanitation and limited access to healthcare have contributed to increased acute malnutrition rates among children and pregnant women, with the number of districts classified as severity level 4 for malnutrition nearly tripling from 19 in 2024 to 56 in 2025.3 In total, 7.8 million children under five years old and women will require nutrition assistance in 2025, which includes 3.5 million acutely malnourished children and 1.1 million women that will require treatment.

Other seasonal challenges, such as flooding, which may be more severe in 2025 due to the La Niña weather event, are expected to result in the destruction of houses and agricultural land, interruptions in essential services and short-term displacement. Flooding affected more than 173,300 people in 2024 and accounted for 96 per cent of all natural disasters.4 Similarly, harsh winters bring life-threatening conditions, particularly in mountainous and high altitude regions where access to remote areas can become extremely challenging. Already at-risk populations such as those lacking sufficient shelter, heating and clothing, with children, pregnant and lactating women, older persons, minorities, those with disabilities as well as recent refugees and returnees being particularly vulnerable to these elements.

Political developments in neighboring Iran and Pakistan add to the risk of a renewed returnee crisis, which peaked in the last quarter of 2023 with the arrival of nearly 500,000 Afghans from Pakistan alone. Although the monthly number of returnees crossing into Afghanistan has since stabilized, the ongoing threat of Afghan deportations from Pakistan persists. Moreover, recent announcements from Iranian authorities regarding the deportation of 2 million undocumented Afghans by March 2025 have corresponded with a temporary rise in mostly undocumented returnees crossing monthly (around 255,000 people in September and more than 219,000 in October 2024), further increasing the need for assistance at border points and areas of return.5 From January to early December 2024, approximately 1.2 million undocumented returnees have returned to Afghanistan, with more than 1.1 million coming from Iran and 80,000 from Pakistan. Additionally, there have been over 53,000 documented returnees, including 957 from Iran and the remaining from Pakistan.6 High numbers of returns further burden over-stretched basic services and local resources in host communities and underline the need for durable solutions in a country already grappling with an estimated 6.3 million people in protracted displacement. At the same time, some 191,500 people residing in nearly 600 informal settlements (ISETS) are at high risk of eviction due to DfA’s initiatives to return them to their places of origin and develop state land.7 ISETS in high value urban areas such as Kabul, Kandahar, Mazare are at the highest risk of eviction.

The protection situation in Afghanistan remains extremely severe, with women, especially those of reproductive age, children, young people and marginalized groups facing disproportionate risks. In particular, the promulgation of the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice (MoPVPV) ‘Morality Law’ in August 2024 has further curtailed women’s participation in the public sphere, freedom of movement and access to services. The ongoing ban on girls’ secondary school education represents an additional barrier to women’s economic participation and opportunities, and results in negative coping strategies, such as child labour, early or forced marriage for girls out of school. Despite the almost virtual halt of active conflict since August 2021, Afghanistan remains a country with one of the highest explosive ordnance (EO) contamination, resulting in 55 casualties per month, mainly children.8 The challenging protection environment has heightened psychosocial needs, with 57 per cent of households reporting that a member has experienced psychological distress, according to Protection Cluster monitoring.9 Persons at risk include members of ethnic and religious minorities, as well as persons with disabilities, amongst others.

The PVPV law will likely continue to have ramifications for humanitarian operations in 2025. In addition to restrictive policies, bureaucratic and administrative impediments related to project registration and efforts to influence project design and implementation further complicate the operational environment. Restrictive policies also continue to limit the capacity of civil society organizations, including those led by women and persons with disabilities, effectively undermining their capacity to provide specialized support and advocate for the rights and inclusion of the most marginalized. Despite these challenges, humanitarian partners remain committed to delivering critical assistance to Afghanistan’s most vulnerable populations. This commitment includes applying adaptation and mitigation measures to ensure that women can access the necessary services and that Afghan women humanitarian workers can engage in the response safely, meaningfully and comprehensively.

In 2025, humanitarian actors will target 16.8 million people – almost three quarters of those in need – with a combination of food assistance, emergency shelter, healthcare, including maternal and reproductive health services, nutrition services, education, safe drinking water, hygiene items and cash assistance, including multi-purpose cash, among other forms of multisectoral support. The protection of vulnerable groups, especially women, girls, boys and those living with disabilities, remains paramount, involving safe spaces, legal support and psychosocial services.