• Rural households are benefiting from average production and income from first and second season crops. As a result, most households are likely to have average stocks for the coming lean season and winter. In general, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in most areas from October 2020 to May 2021. However, areas where agricultural production was significantly affected are expected to continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the coming months.
• Many poor households in urban areas continue to be impacted by below-average income from labor opportunities and remittances due to overall weak economic activity. At the same time, food prices remain above average. With the arrival of spring in April 2021, seasonal improvement in labor availability is expected to improve outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some households, though Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist at the area level in the absence of food assistance.
• Due to La Niña conditions likely to persist through spring, below-average cumulative precipitation is expected for the 2020/21 wet season in Afghanistan. Likely consequences of this include below-average wheat cultivation and production—especially in rainfed areas—and below-average rangeland conditions in areas worst-affected by precipitation deficits. This will likely adversely impact livestock body conditions and prices in the spring in affected areas.