Concerns of a failed wet season and its impact on the 2011 cereal harvest have shifted to flooding risks. As of mid-January, there has been a rapid increase in seasonal precipitation. USGS snow water volume models indicate relatively high levels of snow pack in most of the country, which could result in flooding if temperatures rise too quickly.
Major regional trade policies and wheat markets may drive wheat prices upwards in the near term. Pakistan has imposed an export tax for all commercial goods destined for Afghanistan, including wheat. In addition, continued increases in Kazakhstan wheat export prices and the likely poor winter wheat harvest in China are expected to further drive prices upward.
In the coming months, violence from the ongoing conflict is expected to resume in the south, southeast, and southwestern parts of the country, which could result in further displacement and livelihoods disruption.