Average wheat harvest is anticpiated to improve food security outcomes across the country
• Poor households dependent on rainfed wheat and on-farm labor in northern, northeastern, and northwestern Afghanistan are expected to experience an improvement in food consumption as the harvest continues. These households are expected to be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as most households will not be able to meet all their minimum non-food needs. However, undocumented returnees, IDPs, and households with below-average remittances are likely to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as they become more reliant on markets for food.
• National wheat production in Afghanistan is likely to be significantly above last year and average levels as a result of the significantly above-average precipitation across the country. Many areas across the north, northeast, and northwest of the country, where livelihoods are heavily dependent on rainfed staple production and livestock rearing are experiencing improvements in typical food and income sources. Preliminary harvest estimates indicate that the 2019 wheat harvest will be the highest since at least 2015 at 5.2 million metric tonnes (MMT).
• According to OCHA, through mid-June 2019, insecurity and conflict in various parts of the country has led to the displacement of more than 150,000 people. Conflict to date in 2019 occurred in over half of the provinces. Conflict continues to disrupt livelihood patterns and market activities in these areas. Furthermore, there have been nearly 225,000 undocumented returnees from Iran and Pakistan since the start of 2019. Many of these households will have few incomegenerating opportunities and labor opportunities, specifically after September as agricultural labor demand decreases.