Precipitation during the ongoing wet season has been well below average in many areas
Estimates have indicated that over 350,000 people were displaced from their homes during the course of 2015, the highest number of displacements since records began in 2002. Humanitarian agencies are expecting that internal displacement in 2016 will be similar or worse than last year. As is typical, conflict will likely increase with the onset of spring. Civil insecurity and military operations are likely to continue in many parts of Afghanistan throughout the scenario period.
El Niño conditions, which are ongoing, typically drive increased precipitation over much of Central Asia, including Afghanistan. However, precipitation during the ongoing October to May wet season has been below average in many areas. Seasonal forecasts indicate that it is likely that cumulative precipitation will be below average, which could adversely impact 2016 agricultural seasons.
Although seasonal improvements in access to food and income will occur during the spring and summer months, displacement and reduced non-agricultural labor opportunities are expected to drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout much of the country during the scenario period, with many households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).