Afghanistan + 2 more

Afghanistan Food Security Outlook Update, April 2019

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Near normal temperatures and delayed snowmelt in March slightly delay the wheat harvest

KEY MESSAGES

Cumulative precipitation across most of the country through mid-April is significantly above average facilitating sowing activities. However, due to the delayed snowmelt as a result of average temperatures in March, the harvest will most likely be delayed up to three weeks in some areas. Flash flooding due to heavy rain on snow has also affected nearly 225,000 people as of April 16 in 18 provinces, according to OCHA.

Food security outcomes are likely to gradually improve throughout the country as the main harvest begins in late May/early June with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes emerging. However, undocumented returnees, households with lower-than-average remittances, and those who may be displaced due to natural disasters (floods in particular) are anticipated to continue to face Crisis IPC (Phase 3) outcomes. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue in Badghis and Badakhshan through September.

Nearly 78,000 people have been displaced by conflict from January to late April 2019; below the rate during the same time over the past two years. Many newly displaced households are estimated to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and need urgent assistance to protect livelihoods and mitigate food consumption gaps. The provinces hosting the greatest numbers of newly displaced households mostly due to conflict are Kabul, Kunduz, Takhar, Faryab, Farah, Badghis, and Herat.

Most poor and displaced households are relying on credit or minimal income to purchase seeds for the 2019 agriculture season. Ground information and key informants indicate that planting is ongoing at near normal levels. The 2019 cereal harvest starting in June is likely to be near average, due to near average area planted, normal progression of the wet season, and above average cumulative precipitation.