Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Afghanistan from June to September. Recent flooding, the lingering impacts of drought, and poor macroeconomic conditions are hindering household access to food and income. Household food access is expected to improve with the ongoing harvest in most of the country's lower-elevation areas, supported by typical seasonal income improvements associated with the availability of casual labor opportunities. However, households affected by recent floods in northeastern, northern, and western parts of the country are likely in need of emergency humanitarian food assistance following the loss of their crops and livestock.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely remain in some areas from October to January, while other areas remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Forecasted below-average rainfall in late 2024 is expected to impact agricultural labor opportunities, but households are still likely to plant winter wheat at average rates to try and maximize production. Acute food insecurity will likely increase seasonally during this period as household access to income-earning opportunities declines in the winter, particularly in urban cities and some parts of the northern and central highlands.
The areas of highest concern include the central and northern highlands, urban areas, earthquake affected households in Herat, and returnees from Pakistan located largely in southern and eastern Afghanistan.
Humanitarian food assistance needs are expected to increase seasonally through the projection period, particularly during the winter as households deplete their food stocks from the 2023/24 harvest and income-earning opportunities are limited. As the lean season starts to peak in early 2025, an estimated 8 to 9 million people will still need food assistance by January**.**