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Context analysis
Afghanistan remains one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. In 2024, an estimated 23.7 million people – more than half of Afghanistan’s population – are projected to require humanitarian assistance. The end of the 20 year armed conflict between the Taliban and the Afghan National Security and Defense Forces and International Military Forces in August 2021, and the simultaneous takeover of the country by the Taliban, has ushered in a new era characterized by the almost-total exclusion of half the population – women and girls – from public life, economic challenges, hunger and risk of malnutrition, drastic rises in poverty, and a near-collapse of the national public health system. The collapse of the previous government resulted in a suspension of direct international development assistance, which previously accounted for 75 per cent of public expenditures, including the maintenance of the public health system, and has led to cash shortages, a weak banking sector, rising unemployment, inflation and a depreciating exchange rate. These challenges come as Afghanistan faces increased demand for services – the consequence of rapid population growth, continued high-levels of population movement and urbanization – and dwindling resources. Afghanistan’s population is estimated to pass 44.5 million in 2024, up from 36.8 million just five years ago, with 52 per cent of the population under 18 years old – one of the highest youth populations in the world6. In 2024, an estimated 15.8 million people will experience crisis and emergency levels of food insecurity through March (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC 3+)). While conflict-related displacement has drastically decreased since 2021, an estimated 6.3 million individuals —roughly 1 in 7 Afghans—are experiencing long-term displacement, many who left their homes as early as 2012. This is the largest number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in South Asia and the second largest worldwide. Afghans, and in particular women and girls, face increasing needs, risks and vulnerabilities in Afghanistan as well as in neighbouring countries. As a result of these combined challenges, the humanitarian community foresees that 23.7 million people, two thirds of the population, will require urgent humanitarian assistance in 2024.
Population growth, environmental degradation, climate change, internal displacement and migration and continued high rates of cross-border return (including forced returns) are contributing to increased strain on limited resources, livelihood opportunities and basic services, as well as an increase in protection risks, especially for most at-risk groups, including women and girls. The recent bans on Afghan women working for international non-governmental organizations (I/NGOs) and the UN have added yet another layer of complexity to what is already an incredibly challenging protection environment, and further constrained the operational capacity of partners. Despite the ban, IOM is committed to ensuring the meaningful engagement of women through continued advocacy with Afghanistan’s De-facto Authorities (DfA) at all levels to preserve women’s inclusion and participation, for both staff and beneficiaries, to ensure a principled response. Negotiations are still ongoing to obtain reassurances to operate in a principled manner across the country. IOM will continue to work where possible without discrimination and where the safety of our staff, both female and male, is guaranteed.
Afghanistan is highly prone to natural hazards, whose frequency and intensity are increasing due to climate change. Three years of consecutive La Niña conditions have led to drought and floods, threatening livelihoods. Nearly three-quarters of rural communities experienced severe drought and over 21,000 Afghans were affected by floods in 2023. Rising temperatures are rapidly altering precipitation patterns across the country, diminishing people’s access to water. According to the 2024 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, nearly two million people live in areas that would be heavily impacted by flooding, 17 million people live near fault lines in high-risk seismic zones, and high drought stress is predicted to persist in 2024. In 2022, disaster replaced conflict as the main reason IDPs fled their habitual residences. Afghanistan is projected to be one of the countries most impacted by environmental and climate changes in the coming years, anticipated to result in significant migration-related consequences. Climate change is increasingly a trigger for internal displacement as well as migration out of Afghanistan among rural and other marginalized populations dependent on agriculture. Data from IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) shows that drought is the number one reason for disaster driven displacement, followed by floods and earthquakes.
Located in a seismically active region, Afghanistan is highly susceptible to catastrophic damage due to earthquakes, particularly across several densely populated urban areas along the Chaman, Hari Rud, Central Badakhshan and Darvaz fault lines. In early October 2023, Afghanistan’s northern province of Herat was struck by three 6.3 magnitude earthquakes within one week, with an estimated 1.6 million people experiencing high intensity shaking. The third earthquake (on 15 October 2023) directly affected 43,400 people, leaving at least 114,000 (directly and indirectly affected) in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. Assistance is urgently required to address the critical, time-sensitive needs of the most vulnerable populations throughout the cold months in earthquake affected areas. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes, affected families are in urgent need of temporary shelter, food and cash assistance, safe water and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) supplies, emergency healthcare and protection. During the cold periods of 2024, families will need transitional shelter assistance, winter clothing, warm blankets, and heating materials to avert exposure to extremely cold temperatures.
IOM predicts that over 900,000 people are expected to be newly displaced in 2024 (up from 500,000 in 2022). This is added to a population of some 5.5 million already in protracted displacement. Living conditions or families and individuals in displacement, and in displacement affected areas, are rapidly deteriorating due to the uncertain context. Logistical challenges resulting from the takeover are impacting the cost of living, at the same time as there are severe shortages of cash and uncertainty around the capacity and ability for public service delivery to resume, even at its previous limited levels. These disruptions will have significant impacts on people's lives and livelihoods and will in turn feed into migration decision-making.
In 2023 and 2024, it is estimated that there will be between 1.1 and 1.3 million cross border returnees, with the vast majority – just under 1 million people – returning from Iran and Pakistan. Return figures of undocumented returnees from neighbouring countries continues to increase, with deportations from Iran and Pakistan increasing month by month. Those moving cross-border will have a high level of vulnerability and need with the deteriorating economies in both Afghanistan and surrounding countries; at the time that the Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) 2023 was drafted, 838,000 returnees were projected for 2023, with further outflow to be anticipated. However, on 3 October 2023, the Government of Pakistan announced its decree “Illegal Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan,” setting a 1 November deadline for the “voluntary return” of all undocumented Afghans in Pakistan to their country of origin. The implications of this announcement are considerable. Historically, in 2022/2023, the daily influx of undocumented Afghans returning to Afghanistan via the Spin Boldak (Kandahar) and Torkham (Nangarhar) border crossing points stood at an average of less than 260 individuals. A significant increase has been observed since 15 September 2023, with current returns (as of mid-November 2023) increasing to 4,500 individuals per day. Those returning include undocumented individuals and Afghanistan Citizen Card (ACC) holders.
While the majority of these returns are predominantly voluntary, instances of deportations have been observed since mid-September. Following clarification from the Government of Pakistan that only undocumented Afghans, and not PoR card holders or ACC holders, will be affected by the decree, it is estimated that between 1.1 and 1.3 million undocumented Afghans presently residing in Pakistan will be targeted. Considering the situation of mixed-status households and shifting political context in Pakistan, a number of ACC holders may also return. To respond to this observed increase in returns, organizations working at border locations have scaled-up their operational capacity. They have adopted a joint and harmonized approach to the provision of assistance, ensuring optimal use of resources to assist the high volume of persons in need and in line with contingency plan scenarios.
Additionally, while the primary focus remains on the situation in Pakistan, it is critical to note that any increase in returns from Iran will further strain resources in Afghanistan. A surge in forced returns from Iran would trigger a reassessment of funding requirements to ensure that all cases of deportation and forced return, irrespective of their point of origin, receive support and assistance.