Attachments
SUMMARY
According to a 2018 World Bank report, roughly 70% of the population of Afghanistan live in rural areas where the majority of livelihoods rely on agriculture and livestock, signaling that large parts of the population of Afghanistan are particularly vulnerable to drought. Drought and its impacts have played a major role in driving needs in Afghanistan. Alongside the triple-dip La Niña event that began at the end of 2020 and continued until 2023, Afghanistan experienced one of the most severe droughts in its history. The impact of the drought, combined with other natural disasters, COVID-19, armed conflict, and the collapse of the representative government in August 2021, has led the country into humanitarian crisis.
The drought has exacerbated food insecurity, affected livelihoods, and limited access to water in Afghanistan. It has also acted as a push factor for displacement within the country. According to the Whole of Afghanistan Assessment (WoAA) conducted by REACH in 2023, about 67% of households reported being affected by drought in the 12 months preceding the data collection. Over the three consecutive dry years from 2021 to 2023, agricultural drought was reported to have severely impacted on food security. According to WoAA data, the percentage of the population experiencing poor food consumption increased from 38% in 2021 to 42% in 2022, and decreased in 2023 to 28%, as drought conditions improved. The percentage of households with acceptable food consumption never exceeded 30% during these years.
In addition, according to the Humanitarian Situation Monitoring (HSM) Key Informant survey conducted in September 2023, approximately 58% of key informants reported drought as the primary cause of displacement in their settlements over the six months preceding the data collection.
The Comparative Drought Analysis (CPDA) conducted in Afghanistan during the first and second quarters of 2024 aims to fill information gaps, at the province level, on the impact of drought on communities' food security, livelihoods, displacement, WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene), and health. It also aims to provide insights into the environmental impacts of drought through remote sensing data. Specifically, the study will enhance the development of drought severity monitoring systems, allowing for real-time monitoring of drought severity in Afghanistan.
The methodology and scope of this study were developed by REACH and endorsed by WFP Afghanistan. The study uses free available remote sensing-driven climate data to examine the characteristics of meteorological indicators during dry and wet years. In addition to remote sensing climate data, already available assessment data collected by REACH and other actors in Afghanistan are utilized as well.
Remote sensing data included CHIRPS, MODIS, FEWS NET, Era5, Sentinel-2, and other sources used to calculate drought indicators. Assessment data collected by various organizations over different years were combined and analyzed to monitor changes in related sectors. Data from REACH's WoAA, a nationwide multi-sectoral household survey, were used extensively. Additionally, data from other assessments, including Humanitarian Situation Monitoring (HSM) by REACH, Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping (VAM) by WFP, seasonal calendars from FEWS NET, and acute watery diarrhea cases from WHO, were integrated into the analysis.
Drought indicators in this study were derived from remote sensing data, as access to meteorological ground station data collected by government departments was not accessible. Therefore, the results of the drought indicator analysis have limitations. Additionally, freely available climate datasets have coarse precision, which, while suitable for large-scale geographic scopes, is limited for localized studies.
Nationwide Multi Sectoral Needs Assessment data in Afghanistan is only available since 2021. Accordingly, this limits the ability to track the evolution of needs in communities before that year. Most of the alignment between drought remote sensing data and WoAA assessment data is found between 2021-2022, when the multi sectoral needs data for admin1 level (provinces) is available and at the same time drought condition overshadowed the whole country.
Key Findings
Since 1999, corresponding to the scope of this study, Afghanistan has experienced several drought events with varying severity and geographical impact. Dry weather in Afghanistan is significantly influenced by La Niña events in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Additionally, climate change and global warming contribute to the severity and impact of droughts on communities, particularly by diminishing permanent glaciers and snowpacks. The impacts of drought vary based on the type of drought, topography, and livelihood of the affected areas. Typically, meteorological drought impacts are visible in the upper river basins or mountainous regions of the country, including the Central Highlands and northwestern provinces. Additionally, rainfed and agro-pastoral livelihoods are more sensitive to meteorological drought.
At the beginning of the 21st century, from 2000 to 2002, the country experienced a multi-year drought. Another multi-year drought occurred recently from 2021 to 2023. During these extended drought periods, the country faced hydrological droughts as a result of prolonged meteorological droughts. Hydrological droughts impacted the entire country, but irrigated livelihoods, mostly in the lower and flat parts of the river basins, were more severely affected.
Droughts in Afghanistan have damaged agriculture and livestock, which has further led to increased food prices. In addition, in agro-pastoral communities during drought years, the value of livestock decreased, negatively affecting the purchasing power of these communities. Overall, droughts have disrupted the supply and demand of commodities in the communities.
Drought has emerged as a driver of food insecurity and a deterioration of coping strategies in the country by damaging food sources. The number of people consuming less food increased during drought years. Furthermore, the number of households practicing emergency livelihood coping strategies increased considerably during these years. Although community resilience varies based on the livelihoods practiced, provinces practicing agro-pastoral livelihoods found particularly central highland region, and those provinces with more drought-resistant livelihoods such as forest-based livelihoods in the southeastern region, have shown more stability during drought conditions.
The number of households using unprotected water sources increased generally across the country as droughts extended. Additionally, the number of households traveling longer distances to access water also increased. The incidence of acute watery diarrhea saw a substantial increase during drought years. Water scarcity seems to relate to the type of drought: communities in upper river basins report more challenges in accessing water during meteorological droughts, while lower river basin provinces report more water scarcity during prolonged droughts when hydrological droughts occur.