Attachments
Afghanistan:
Afghanistan remains one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. In 2024, an estimated 23.7 million people – more than half of Afghanistan’s population – are projected to require humanitarian assistance. The collapse of the previous government in August 2021 resulted in a suspension of direct international development assistance, which previously accounted for 75 per cent of public expenditures, and has led to cash shortages, a weak banking sector, rising unemployment, inflation and a depreciating exchange rate. Around half of the population – women and girls – has been excluded from public life. Alongside rapid population growth, increased levels of hunger and risk of malnutrition, drastic rises in poverty, and a near-collapse of the national public health system, Afghanistan faces increased demand for services amid dwindling resources.
While conflict-related displacement has drastically decreased since 2021, an estimated 6.3 million individuals—roughly 1 in 7 Afghans—are experiencing long-term displacement, many who left their homes as early as 2012. This is the largest number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in South Asia and the second largest worldwide.
Afghanistan is projected to be one of the countries most affected by environmental and climate change in the coming years, anticipated to result in significant migration-related consequences, especially for populations dependent on agriculture. Data from IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) shows that drought is the number one reason for disaster driven displacement, followed by floods and earthquakes in 2025. Alongside these issues, internal displacement, migration and continued high rates of cross-border return are further straining limited resources, livelihood opportunities and basic services, as well as increasing protection risks, especially for most at-risk groups, including women and girls. The bans on Afghan women working for I/NGOs and the UN (in December 2022 and April 2023) have added yet another layer of complexity. Despite the ban, IOM is committed to ensuring the meaningful engagement of women through continued advocacy with the de facto authorities (DfA) at all levels to preserve women’s inclusion and participation, for both staff and beneficiaries, to ensure a principled response.
IOM predicts that over 900,000 people are expected to be newly displaced in 2024 (up from 500,000 in 2022). This is added to a population of some 5.5 million already in protracted displacement. In 2023 and 2024, it is estimated that there will be between 1.1 and 1.3 million cross border returnees, with the vast majority – just under 1 million people – returning from the Islamic Republic of Iran (hereinafter, Iran) and Pakistan. Those moving cross-border have a high level of vulnerability and needs considering deteriorating economies both in Afghanistan and surrounding countries. On 3 October 2023, the Government of Pakistan announced its decree “Illegal Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan’ setting a 1 November deadline for the ‘voluntary return’ of all undocumented Afghans in Pakistan to their country of origin. A significant increase has been observed since 15 September 2023, in returns of undocumented individuals, Afghanistan Citizen Card (ACC) holders and Assisted VolRep (Proof of Registration (PoR) card holders). While instances of deportations have been observed since mid-September 2023, the majority of returnees stated that the reason for their return is either a direct result of police harassment or fear of deportation. It is estimated that between 1.1 and 1.3 million undocumented Afghans presently residing in Pakistan will be targeted. Considering the situation of mixed-status households, an estimated 50,000 Assisted VolRep (PoR) may also return due to the shifting political context in Pakistan, in addition to 720,000 ACC holders and undocumented Afghans. To respond to this observed increase in returns, organizations working at the aforementioned border locations have scaled-up their operational capacity. They have adopted a joint and harmonized approach to the provision of assistance, ensuring optimal use of resources to assist the high volume of persons in need and in line with contingency plan scenarios.
Additionally, while the primary focus remains on the situation in Pakistan, it is critical to note that any increase in returns from Iran will further strain resources in Afghanistan. A surge in deportations and push-backs from Iran would trigger a reassessment of funding requirements to ensure that all cases of deportation and forced return, irrespective of their point of origin, receive support and assistance.
For further information, read our Afghanistan Crisis Response Plan.
Pakistan:
Pakistan has national security, economic and political concerns, and the humanitarian and human rights situation remains precarious. Despite increasing tensions and threats of deportations, Pakistan will continue to host one of the largest displaced populations (refugees in particular) in the world. An estimated 20.6 million people out of a total population of more than 231 million will continue to need humanitarian assistance in 2024.
Pakistan is consistently ranked among the ten most vulnerable countries to the effects of global climate change. The country is under stress from various natural hazards, including seismic activity originating in the Himalaya region, along with numerous hydrometeorological hazards which are expected to intensify and affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people, and also exacerbate existing population vulnerabilities.
Instability in Afghanistan during the past few decades has led to a substantial influx of Afghan nationals into Pakistan. Per UNHCR's Regional Refugee Response Plan 2024-2025 estimates, there are over 3.2 million Afghan nationals living in Pakistan. Of them, approximately 1.4 million are refugees holding a Proof of Registration (PoR) card issued by the Government of Pakistan, about 840,000 hold an Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) and an estimated 1.6 million undocumented. General elections took place in Pakistan on 8 February 2024. As no party won a majority, the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan People’s Party, and the Mutahida Qoumi Movement announced that they will form a coalition government led by the PML-N. Shahbaz Sharif of the PML-N was elected as the Prime Minister of Pakistan on 3 March 2024 for a five-year term. The incoming coalition government’s position on the IFRP is currently unknown. In early March 2024, the Pakistan federal interior ministry reportedly issued orders to resume the repatriation process, targeting primarily ACC holders, starting from 15 April 2024. These developments may result in another major influx of Afghan returnees from Pakistan.
For further information, read the Pakistan Crisis Response Plan
Iran:
Iran is a country of origin, transit, and destination for migrants, including internal migrants, due to its geopolitics, demographics and economic opportunities. Iran hosts one of the largest refugee and migrant populations in the world, the majority of whom come from Afghanistan totaling around 4.5 million. According to the latest figures communicated by the Government of Iran, this number includes 750,000 Afghans holding registration cards, 360,000 holding passports, 270,000 holding residence permits, and 2.6 million who registered through government-led headcount exercises — with an acknowledged presence of a significant but unspecified number of undocumented individuals.
Iran has implemented policies that grant Afghan nationals access to a range of legal services, however these have led to a surge in the demand for public services. Iran is grappling with the resurgence of communicable diseases due to population movements. Drivers of Afghan migration are predominantly the consequence of decades-long armed conflict, insecurity, resultant chronic underdevelopment and increasing poverty. The country is also faced with diverse types of irregular migration, with transit migration often associated with human trafficking and smuggling of migrants, with an unknown number of migrants originating from several African and Asian countries getting stranded in Iran, and some deportations from the Republic of Türkiye.
Iran is also faced with the immediate repercussions of climate change, particularly profound in a semi-arid country with limited water resources. In addition, Iran is at constant risk of catastrophic earthquakes because of the geological configuration of the country, posing significant consequences for the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. Migrants including refugees may not have the same level of access to early warning and disaster related information.
Poverty rates have been rising and the inflationary consequences of sanctions, with spiking prices in basic goods and services, as well as medicine and medical devices, have led to a substantial reduction in households’ purchasing power and exacerbating vulnerabilities to various protection risks, including violence, exploitation and abuse. At the same time, job creation is insufficient to absorb the large pool of young and educated people into the labour market.
For further information, read the Iran Crisis Response Plan.
Central Asia:
Without clear pathways to durable solutions in the Central Asian context, prolonged displacement has exacerbated vulnerabilities and needs of displaced Afghan populations. Uzbekistan has not ratified the 1951 Refugee Convention and has no domestic law or policy on asylum. In this context, Afghans must renew visitor visas every month (incurring fees of 100 to 1,000 USD each time). Complications linked to legal status make it impossible for many Afghans to work, build skills or access basic services, while also increasing the risks of detention and deportation. The same challenges prevent many Afghan children from accessing education. Stress, anxiety, and feelings of hopelessness have increased among the Afghan population in Uzbekistan. While legal regimes in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan provide greater stability and protection to Afghans, the most vulnerable households still face barriers to basic services and livelihoods linked to their visa status. In Tajikistan, most of the Afghan community holds refugee status. The remainder of the community is either long present in the country or in the process of seeking asylum. They have access to basic services such as education and health, but livelihood opportunities are limited, and the Afghan refugee population have to negotiate many hurdles when it comes to accessing the job market or opening a business.