Attachments
The Afghanistan Monitoring Report is part of FEWS NET’s ongoing efforts to evaluate agro-climatic conditions in Afghanistan. This report—the final issue of 2025 and the third assessment of the 2025/26 wet season—provides detailed technical analysis, visualizations, and narrative summaries examining the onset, evolution, and cessation of the October–May wet season.
Drawing on advanced data and tools, the report supports evidence-based decision-making and response planning. Afghanistanspecific monitoring plots generated using the SMPG tool provide actionable insights at the livelihood zone, province, district, and basin levels. The report utilizes CHIRPS data and the FEWS GeoTOOLS to track the onset, progression, and conclusion of the wet season, complemented by insights from NOAA, NASA, UCSB’s Climate Hazards Center, and USGS EROS.
This season, La Niña conditions are present, but is likely a weak and short-lived event. A transition to ENSO-Neutral is most likely during January–March with 68% chance. This climate phenomenon significantly influences global weather patterns, primarily affecting the region through altered precipitation and temperature variability. More information about La Niña and global precipitation teleconnections can be found here.
Seasonal analog years were selected based on climate forecasts indicating average to below-average precipitation for the 2025/26 season. These analogs suggest an increased likelihood of a below-normal start to the season and poor rainfed wheat yields. The analog years most aligned with expected 2025/26 rainfall patterns are: 1998–1999, 1999–2000, 2001–2001, 2005–2006, 2007–2008, 2008–2009, 2010–2011, 2011–2012, 2016–2017, 2017–2018, 2020–2021, 2021–2022, 2022–2023, 2024–2025. Given the potential impacts of the sixth year of abnormal dryness, closely monitoring the evolution of La Niña conditions remains critical to mitigating risks to livelihoods and food security.