Attachments
Introduction:
We are pleased to present the first 2025 Afghanistan Food Security and Agro-Climate Monitoring Report, marking the third year of our dedicated efforts to monitor agro-climatic conditions and their profound impacts on food security, agriculture, livestock, and livelihoods across Afghanistan. This report provides a robust technical analysis of the 2024/25 wet season (October to June), leveraging state-of-the-art tools and data to inform stakeholders and guide responses. Afghanistan-specific monitoring plots generated using the SMPG tool provide actionable insights at livelihood zone, province, district, and basin levels.(Afghanistan Special Reports).
The report employs Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data, using the FEWS GeoTOOLS to offer detailed insights into the onset, progression, and conclusion of the wet season. Rich graphical representations and descriptive analyses enhance understanding of seasonal dynamics. Other data sources include NOAA, NASA, WMO, BoM, UCSB's Climate Hazards Center, and USGS EROS, ensuring accuracy and reliability.
Seasonal analog years were chosen based on climate forecasts predicting average to below-average precipitation for the 2024/25 season. To reflect recent warming trends, these analogs were selected from years post-2000. The chosen analogs suggest a higher-than-normal likelihood of poor spring and winter wheat yields in Afghanistan, with spring wheat being more strongly affected. However, the long lead time of these forecasts introduces some uncertainty regarding end-of-season outcomes. The years 2000-2001, 2003-2004, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2010-2011, 2015-2016, 2017-2018, 2020- 2021, 2022-2023, and 2023-2024 align most closely with expected rainfall patterns for the 2024/25 season.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO Outlook (issued on January 2025), La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through FebruaryApril 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance).
Historically, La Niña has been associated with below-average rainfall in Afghanistan and other parts of Central and South Asia. These dry conditions often disrupt agriculture, livestock, and hydropower production, exacerbating food insecurity in these regions. Given the potential for significant impacts, closely monitoring seasonal rainfall patterns and the evolution of La Niña conditions is essential to mitigate risks to livelihoods and food security.