Attachments
Introduction: The Afghanistan Monitoring Report is part of ongoing efforts to assess agro-climatic conditions and their impacts on food security, agriculture, livestock, and livelihoods. This edition provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2024/25 wet season (October–June), leveraging advanced data and tools to support decision-making and response planning. Afghanistan-specific monitoring plots generated using the SMPG tool provide actionable insights at livelihood zone, province, district, and basin levels. The report utilizes CHIRPS data and the FEWS GeoTOOLS to track the onset, progression, and conclusion of the wet season, complemented by insights from NOAA, NASA, WMO, BoM, UCSB’s Climate Hazards Center, and USGS EROS.
Seasonal analog years were selected based on climate forecasts indicating average to below-average precipitation for the 2024/25 season. To account for recent warming trends, only post-2000 years were considered. These analogs suggest an increased likelihood of poor spring and winter wheat yields, with spring wheat being more vulnerable. However, the long lead time of these forecasts introduces some uncertainty regarding end-of-season outcomes. The analog years most aligned with expected 2024/25 rainfall patterns are: 2000-2001, 2003-2004, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2010-2011, 2015-2016, 2017-2018, 2020-2021, 2022-2023, and 2023-2024.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO Outlook (February 2025), indicates that La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist in the near term, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (66% probability).
Historically, La Niña has been associated with below-average rainfall in Afghanistan and across Central and South Asia, leading to dry conditions that disrupt agriculture, livestock, and hydropower production, exacerbating food insecurity. Given these potential impacts, closely monitoring seasonal rainfall patterns and the evolution of La Niña remains critical for mitigating risks to livelihoods and food security.