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JOINT SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS
Afghanistan is currently facing a humanitarian crisis resulting from the compounded impacts of multiple events. In 2023, two thirds of Afghanistan’s population (28.8 million people) are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance as the country enters its third consecutive year of drought and the second year of crippling economic decline. This is a 16 per cent increase on 24.4 million people in 2022 and a 54 percent increase on 18.4 million people in 2021. While delivery of urgent humanitarian assistance has received substantial donor support, it is imperative that the provision of aid must incorporate longer-term solutions that provide for multiple years and that remaining significant humanitarian funding gaps are addressed to enable humanitarian actors to assist more of the many affected people throughout Afghanistan.
The country is also still reeling from the effects of decades-long conflict and these multiple shocks further complicate humanitarian conditions and make Afghanistan one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Afghanistan has faced four decades of conflict between both internal and external parties, resulting in generations of people living in insecurity. Since the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan assumed control in August 2021, there has been some respite in fighting and greater access to previously unreachable areas. However, while hostilities have subsided, the security situation still remains precarious due to the long-lasting effects of years of large-scale armed conflict (for example, weapons contamination) and the continuing impact of sporadic violence. Afghanistan is also highly vulnerable to natural hazards such as earthquakes, and to the effects of climate change, in particular to floods and droughts.
The current population of Afghanistan is 41.1 million. It is a diverse, multi-ethnic and multilingual society, with ethnic groups including Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbeks and smaller groups such as Nuristanis, Aimaq, Turkmen, Baloch and others. The country’s population is mostly rural, with 30.18 million people living in the countryside (an increase on 2021) and 55 per cent of the population aged between 15 to 64. The fertility rate for women in 2023 is, on average, four children per woman. Men have a life expectancy of 61 years and women a life expectancy of 67 (UNFPA, world population data).
There are also increased levels of unemployment and poverty. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 84 per cent of the population fall under the national poverty line, with food inflation and specific local conditions leading to up to 90 per cent falling below the food poverty line. Most households use one or more mechanisms to cope, but this is unsustainable in the long-term. Nearly 80 per cent of affected households have borrowed money, 45 per cent have decreased expenditures on other priorities, such as health and education, 40 percent have used up savings, and up to 34 percent have sold assets, such as animals, land and houses (UNDP 2023, Afghanistan Socio-economic Outlook). Without assistance, negative coping strategies will increase, putting lives at risk.
According to the World Food Programme (WFP), in 2023, all 34 provinces of the country are facing crisis or emergency levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or 4), affecting around 17.2 million people (40 per cent of the population). Nearly 3.4 million people (eight per cent) are facing emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity. Agricultural production levels have been affected by both conflict and climate events, which strongly influences the economic wellbeing of households; around 80 per cent of livelihoods rely directly or indirectly on agriculture (FAO, October 2022 and World Bank, May 2023). More than half of Afghanistan’s working population work in the agricultural sector, of whom 54 per cent are women.
The prevalence of malnutrition in children and women is above regional and global averages, with approximately seven million women and children under the age of five acutely malnourished and most provinces reporting growing cases of chronic malnutrition (25 provinces showing very high rates amongst children under five, according to the World Health Organization). This significantly increases longer-term health and developmental risks. Lack of food security and access to basic services is creating a growing number of people seeking to leave Afghanistan, and will impact neighbouring countries, especially Iran and Pakistan.
Multiple shocks are also impacting Afghanistan’s health needs and straining already overstretched health systems and services. It is projected that more than 17.6 million people will need humanitarian health assistance in Afghanistan in 2023 (Humanitarian Response Plan, 2023). This is particularly critical in relation to reproductive, maternal, new-born and child health services that are understaffed or restricted, and there are rises in maternal deaths, unintended pregnancies, sexually transmitted infections, unsafe abortions, and sexual and gender-based violence. Limitations on women’s movements continue to restrict women’s access to life-saving health services, while children remain vulnerable to vaccine preventable diseases, malnutrition, and other illnesses. There is also a need for a broad coverage of surveillance activities and response teams, and for joint efforts with WASH actors to ensure access to safe water and sanitation, to prevent and control disease outbreaks.
According to the Humanitarian Needs Overview, 2023, the main reasons for the significant increase in the percentage of the population requiring humanitarian assistance is in large part due to a significant increase in WASH needs (up 40 per cent), which will continue to grow in urban and rural areas, due to the prolonged drought and the drying up of surface water sources and groundwater levels. The other critical area is the significant increase in protection needs (up 25 per cent), due to the increasingly restrictive measures affecting women and girls, including the lack of access for girls to secondary education.