KEY DEVELOPMENTS
Clashes between the Interim Taliban Authority (ITA) forces and the Pakistani military have escalated since 21 February, with both parties engaging in fighting along the Durand Line (The Guardian 26/02/2026; CNN 27/02/2026 and 22/02/2026). On 27 February, the Pakistani defence minister announced the launch of a major offensive against Afghanistan, describing it as “an open war”, and conducted airstrikes on Kabul and two cities in Paktia and Kandahar provinces (CSIS 27/02/2026; Afghan Times 28/02/2026; Dawn accessed 27/02/2026).
According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), 21 February airstrikes in Behsud and Khogyani districts of Nangarhar province killed at least 18 civilians and injured seven others (UNAMA 23/02/2026). UNAMA also reported that fighting between 26 February–2 March killed 42 people and injured 104 others, including women and children. These casualty figures, which UNAMA described as “preliminary,” include those resulting from indirect fire in cross-border clashes in residential parts of Khost, Kunar, Paktia, Paktika, and Nangarhar provinces (UNAMA 03/03/2026). Along with civilian casualties, both parties have reported the death, injury, and capture of combatants (AP 28/02/2026; AJ 27/02/2026).
The current escalation follows a period of increased clashes between the two parties since 10 October 2025 over cross-border militant activity and disputes over armed group sanctuaries, primarily related to attacks on Pakistani security forces by the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan, which Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of harbouring (ECHO 27/02/2026; OCHA 30/12/2025; ACLED 27/02/2026). Along with the fighting, the Durand Line has been closed since 12 October. Despite a 15 October ceasefire brokered by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye, clashes continued throughout the remainder of 2025 (ACLED 08/12/2025; UNAMA 08/02/2026; The Diplomat 03/03/2026; ECHO 24/02/2026). Further talks on the implementation of a lasting ceasefire and the reopening of cross-border trade have failed to make progress (France 24 27/02/2026).