South Asian Climate Outlook Forum predicts normal monsoon
Normal rainfall is most likely during the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June – September) over most parts of South Asia. However, above normal rainfall is likely over some areas in east central India and southeastern parts of the region. Below-normal rainfall is likely over some areas of southern, northwestern and northeastern parts of South Asia.
Summary of the Forecast for the 2018 southwest monsoon Rainfall
a) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
b) Forecast also suggests maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.
Chapter 1 Overview
1.1. About the Institute
The National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) constituted on 31.10.20061 under The Disaster Management Act 2005 has been entrusted with the responsibility for planning and promoting training and research in the area of disaster management, documentation and development of national level information base relating to disaster management policies, prevention mechanisms and mitigation measures2.
Yesterday’s depression over southeast Arabian Sea moved northwestwards, weakened into well marked low pressure area and lay over Lakshadweep and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea at 0530 hrs IST of 15th March. It is likely to move north-northwestwards and weaken further over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea during next 24 hours.
Yesterday’s depression over southeast Arabian Sea (AS) and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean moved north-northwestwards during past 24 hours and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 14th March 2018 over southeast AS near latitude 7.50 N and longitude 74.00 E, about 130 km southeast of Minicoy, 340 km west- southwest of Thiruvanathapuram and 380 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives). It is likely to move northwestwards and maintain the intensity of depression during next 24 hrs. There is low probability for further intensification of the system into deep depression.