Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook May 15 – May 21, 2014
Heavy rains increase already substantial thirty-day rainfall surpluses in Cote D’Ivoire and South Sudan.
An increase in rain is observed across dry portions of central Somalia, though, dryness remain.
1) Consistently low and infrequent seasonal precipitation across some bimodal rainfall areas of northern Tanzania, as well as western Kenya, northeastern Uganda and into the southern rift valley of Ethiopia have resulted in strengthening moisture deficits since late March. A continuation of suppressed rainfall in May is likely to adversely impact developing crops and pastoral conditions in the region.
2) Consistently above-average early season rainfall across central Cote D’Ivoire has resulted in thirty-day rainfall anomalies exceeding 100mm and saturated grounds. Additional heavy rain forecast for the next week could cause localized flooding.
3) Sporadic rainfall during the past several months has led to developing rainfall deficits and dryness over the Hirraan, Galgaduud and Mudug regions of southern and central Somalia and the Somali and southern Oromia region of Ethiopia.
The dryness has led to food/water shortages and livestock fatalities. Moderate rains forecast should provide some relief during the next week, though dryness will remain.
4) Torrential coastal showers in the Tanga, Pwani and Dar es Salaam regions of Tanzania have resulted in flooding, which has destroyed roads and infrastructure and damaged crops. With heavy rain forecast for the next week, additional flooding is possible.