ReliefWeb

JTWC Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION COVERING UP THE LLCC.THE EDGE OF THIS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) REGION HAS SHARPENED, AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OBSERVED IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) IMAGERY.THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO, SUPPORTED BY A 091800Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS.UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST.ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 28C TO 29C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE.TC KENI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST.THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR TERM AND FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24.AFTERWARD, AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN UPSTREAM OF 19P, CAUSING RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS.INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION...