FSNAU Quarterly Brief June, 2012

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Quarterly Brief - Focus on Post Gu Season Early Warning

Key Findings

Based on the results of the rapid preliminary Gu season field assessment carried out in June 2012 and monthly monitoring of food security and nutrition situation, FSNAU projects a total number of people in a food security crisis is likely to remain unchanged in the second half of the year. This forecast will hold under the conditions of continued humanitarian support (cash and food), which was extended to 3.4 million people in April this year. The impact of the assistance is seen in improved access to food, social safety nets and household incomes to allow for restocking of livestock, as well as the overall improved nutrition situation in the country.

However, the food security situation is going to deteriorate in agropastoral areas in the South where below average Gu rainfall in most rain-fed farming areas suggest inevitable shortfall of Gu harvest.
Below average to poor harvest is expected in all rain-fed regions of the Sorghum Belt, inclusive of the major sorghum producing region of Bay, which normally accounts for almost two-thirds of the total sorghum production of the country. This prospect is particularly concerning for poor farmers in parts of crop-dependent agropastoral areas in the South (Bay, parts of Juba, Shabelle, Bakool and Gedo), who normally derive about 4-6 months of cereal supplies from the Gu season. A meagre crop production is also likely in the agropastoral zone of Central following erratic and below normal Gu rains combined with pest infestation, which will have implications on the food access of households in this livelihood.