Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook October 2 – October 8, 2014

from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 01 Oct 2014
  • Favorable, late-season rains continued throughout many regions of West Africa during the last week.
  • Significantly heavy rainfall forecast over northern Somalia and eastern Ethiopia.

1) Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and negatively affected the development of already-planted crops over the Arsi and West Arsi zones in central Oromia of central Ethiopia.
2) Despite a seasonable return of precipitation during August, moisture deficits have persisted in northwestern Senegal. The delayed onset of the season in July has already resulted in deteriorated conditions and affected crops on the ground.
3) An early cessation of Mar-May seasonal rainfall, as well as, an anomalously dry July have led to deteriorated crop and degraded pasture conditions across several zones in central and northern Ethiopia.
4) Poor seasonal rainfall since the middle of August has led to late-season moisture deficits, increasing the likelihood for adverse ground impacts throughout many parts of western and southern Niger, eastern Mali, and northern Nigeria. Below average rains are forecast in the region for the upcoming outlook period.
5) Poor July rains throughout several local regions in Mali have resulted in degraded crop and pastoral conditions. August and September rains have continued to help improve ground impacts.
6) Torrential amounts of precipitation forecast over arid northern Somalia are likely to trigger localized flooding in the region.
7) Since the beginning of September, poor rains have led to deteriorating crops and compromised planting activities throughout Rwanda.