Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook December 5 – December 11, 2013

from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 04 Dec 2013

Abnormal dryness has settled in across eastern Southern Africa due to a poor rainfall distribution during November.

1) While some local areas observed some moisture recovery along the Jubba River basin in southern Somalia during mid-November, the absence of precipitation in October has led to significant moisture deficits across many parts of southern Somalia and eastern Kenya. This dryness is likely to negatively impact the development of crops, and pastoral conditions with little opportunity for recovery before the end of the rains season.

2) Wet episodes over eastern Ethiopia and central Somalia during mid-November have led to downstream flooding and elevated water river levels along the Shabelle River, particularly the Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.

3) During November, poorly-distributed rainfall has resulted in growing moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions over many local areas of west-central Tanzania. Moderate rains are forecast across the region during the next seven days, which may help to relieve dry conditions.

4) A prolonged delay of the onset of the rainy season and erratic rainfall distribution during November have resulted in developing dryness across eastern Zambia, southern Malawi, and western Mozambique. Suppressed rainfall is forecast over the region during the next week, which could worsen conditions on the ground.