Tropical Cyclone NOUL formed in the Pacific Ocean on 3 May. By 6 May, it had passed Fais and Ulithis atolls of the Federated States of Micronesia with Tropical Storm intensity and had crossed over Yap island as a Typhoon, without though causing major damage (the islands were severely affected by the passage of a previous Typhoon,
MAYSAK, late March). It then moved into the Philippine Sea, intensifying further.
• On 8 May, at 6.00 UTC, NOUL (named “DODONG” in the Philippines) was a Typhoon, with maximum sustained winds of 185km/h. Its centre was located over sea, approximately 415km east of Northern Samar province, in Eastern Visayas Region.
• Over the next 48h, NOUL is forecast to move north-west, towards the northern Philippines. It is expected to reach Isabela and Cagayan provinces on 10 May, early in the morning (UTC). Its intensity is forecast to continue increasing, becoming an intense Typhoon by the time it reaches land.
• Subsequently, NOUL is forecast to start weakening and turn north, towards Batanes islands. It may move east of Taiwan and approach the islands of Okinawa prefecture between 11 and 12 May, gradually weakening into a Tropical Storm.
• Heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are expected to affect the Philippines, along the areas of NOUL’s passage. JRC calculations indicate strom surge of up to 0.7m in coastal areas of northern Cagayan province and up to 0.4m in Divilican, northern Isabela, on 10 May.
• As of 8 May, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signals #2 (winds of up to 120km/h expected in 24h) and #1 (winds up to 60km/h expected in 36h) for provinces along the eastern part of the country.
• The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council Operation Center of the Philippines has raised its Alert Status to Blue as of 7 May.