Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook, August 7 – August 13, 2014

from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 06 Aug 2014

- Below-average rains observed across western Sahel during late July.

- Wetness continues in Eastern Africa.

1) Since early June, seasonal rainfall has been both suppressed and infrequent across northeastern Nigeria leading to a strengthening of moisture deficits. While there is a chance for some relief with increased rainfall forecast during the upcoming outlook period, anomalously dry ground conditions are expected to persist, which still may negatively impact developing crops later into the season.

2) Although much of western Ethiopia has experienced favorable amounts of rainfall during the last two monthsand recent rains have improved in quantity in eastern Ethiopia, poorly distributed rains in parts of eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and northern Oromia have been consistently below-average since June.

3) A continued sluggish start to seasonal rainfall across much of Senegal has led to deteriorating ground conditions and growing early season rainfall deficits dating back to June. With little rain forecast for the upcoming period, rainfall deficits are expected to grow, potentially impacting cropping activities.

4) Delayed start and poor distribution of the seasonal rains have negatively impacted cropping activities along the Mauritania-Mali border. The forecast suppressed rains during the next week are likely to increase moisture deficits and worsen conditions.

5) Heavy rains during the past two weeks in the Darfur region of Sudan caused flooding which destroyed shelters over many parts of the Darfur. With heavy and above-average rains forecast for next week, additional flooding is likely.

6) Heavy rains during the past week have resulted in flooding and displaced people across the Unity state of South Sudan. Forecasts call for moderate rains, which can exacerbate conditions on the ground.

7) Heavy downpours during the past week caused flooding, infrastructure damages, injuries, and displaced people across the Khartoum, River Nile, and Al Gazeira states. Potential for flooding remains high as heavy rains are forecast to continue over upstream Ethiopian highland.