Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook March 12 – March 18, 2015

from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 11 Mar 2015

- Suppressed rains expected in Southern Africa during the next week. - Dry weather observed over the Greater Horn of Africa.

1) Frequent and above-average rainfall over the past several weeks has led to large moisture surpluses in northern Mozambique. During the next week, heavy rains are forecast to continue, which could trigger new flooding and exacerbate conditions on the ground.

2) Since late December, a sharp reduction in rainfall has resulted in mid-season dryness across parts of southern Angola, western Zambia, northern Namibia into the Caprivi Strip region, and the Ghanzi and Ngamiland districts of Botswana. The continuation of suppressed rainfall is expected to negatively impact developing crops.

3) Poorly-distributed rainfall since January has resulted in abnormal dryness throughout southern Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, northern South Africa, southeastern Botswana, and the Free State, North West, and KwaZulu-Natal provinces of South Africa. Conditions may improve as light to moderate rains are forecast in the region during the next week.

4) Despite recent increase in rainfall across southern Tanzania, the eastern and central parts of the country have received below-average rainfall, which has already negatively impacted crop conditions. The forecast little to no rainfall during the next week may worsen conditions on the ground.

5) Extended dry spells since January have led to large rainfall deficits in northeastern Namibia. The continued below-average rain has degraded vegetation conditions further. With the rainy season approaching to an end, recovery is unlikely.

6) Below-average rainfall since February has resulted in increasing rainfall deficits in southwestern Ethiopia. Dry weather is expected to continue during the next week, which is likely to increase moisture deficits in the region.