Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook January 30 – February 5, 2014

from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 29 Jan 2014

A seasonable distribution of precipitation was received throughout much of southern Africa during the last week.

1) Portions of Tanzania have experienced below average seasonal rainfall since late November. Poorly distributed rains since early December have also led to developing dry conditions in the Morogoro and Pwani provinces further east. The anomalous dryness has already negatively impacted vegetation conditions in the region.

2) Winter temperature and moisture conditions remain conducive for a high risk of locust swarms to winter-irrigated crops in the River Nile and Red Sea provinces of northeastern Sudan, and western Eritrea.

3) Anomalously heavy rainfall during the month of January has led to saturated ground conditions throughout many local areas in western Madagascar. Locally heavy rainfall forecast in the region may trigger flooding during the next week.

4) Abundant rains over the past several weeks have led to elevated river levels along the Púnguè, Búzi and Save Rivers in central Mozambique. Localized flooding has occurred that has inundated crop fields, damaged infrastructure and isolated the town of Buzi. With additional heavy rain forecast during the next week, the risk for additional river flooding remains elevated.