Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook January 23 – January 29, 2014

from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 22 Jan 2014

Enhanced rains continue across parts of northern Mozambique and Madagascar, sustaining the risk for localized flooding.

1) Portions of Tanzania have experienced below average seasonal rainfall since late November. Poorly distributed rains since early December have also led to developing dry conditions in the Morogoro and Pwani provinces further east. The anomalous dryness has already negatively impacted vegetation conditions in the region.

2) Four consecutive weeks of above-average rains have resulted in large rainfall surpluses covering a broad area surrounding the Caprivi Strip. Many local areas have experienced more than twice their normal rainfall accumulation since early December, leading to an increased risk for inundation along the Zambezi River. Although rainfall has decreased during the last two weeks throughout the region, there still remains a risk for flooding in January.

3) Heavy, above-average precipitation across the Mozambique Channel has led to over saturation of ground conditions and sustained the risk for localized flooding throughout western Madagascar.

4) Winter temperature and moisture conditions remain conducive for a high risk of locust swarms to winter-irrigated crops in the River Nile and Red Sea provinces of northeastern Sudan, and western Eritrea.