Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook March 5 – March 11, 2015

from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 04 Mar 2015
  • Consistent heavy rains caused fatalities, flooding, and landslides in Madagascar.

  • A slow start to the rainy season observed in southwestern Ethiopia.

1) Since mid-December, consistent and significantly heavy rainfall has been received over southeastern Africa. In southern Malawi, and central and northern Mozambique, rains have resulted in widespread flooding, extensive damage to crops, livestock and infrastructure, thousands of displaced people, and fatalities. Above-average rain forecast during the next week will keep flooding risks elevated.

2) Since late-December, a sharp reduction in precipitation has resulted in mid-season dryness across several parts of southern Angola, western Zambia northern Namibia into the Caprivi Strip region and the Ghanzi and Ngamiland districts of Botswana. The continuation of suppressed rainfall is expected to negatively impact developing crops.

3) Poorly-distributed rainfall since January has resulted in abnormal dryness throughout southern Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, northern South Africa, southeastern Botswana, and the Free State, North West, and KwaZulu-Natal provinces of South Africa. The forecast little to no rainfall during the next week could worsen ground conditions in the region.

4) Abundant rains over the past thirty-days have resulted in widespread flooding in Madagascar, which have damaged crops and infrastructure, displaced thousands, and increased the risk for water-borne disease outbreaks. Heavy rains forecast during the next week will keep flooding risks elevated.

5) Extended dry spells and thirty-day rainfall less than the 10th percentile have led to poor ground conditions that could impact crops across central/southern Tanzania. Heavy rain forecast for southern Tanzania will provide relief, but dry conditions are expected to continue in central Tanzania.

6) Extended dry spells since January have led to large rainfall deficits in northeastern Namibia. The continued belowaverage rain has degraded vegetation conditions further.
With the rainy season approaching to an end, recovery is unlikely.

7) Below-average rainfall since February has resulted in increasing rainfall deficits in southwestern Ethiopia. The forecast suppressed rains during the next week may worsen conditions.