Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook January 1 – January 7, 2015

Map
from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 31 Dec 2014
  • Heavy rains brought needed moisture to dry areas in eastern southern Africa.
  • Moderate to heavy rains were observed around Lake Victoria in Uganda and Kenya.

1) Although good rains were observed over the Greater Horn of Africa during late November and early December, the delayed onset of the October- December rainy season combined with an erratic distribution of rains during the season had already negatively impacted ground conditions in northern Kenya and southern Somalia. As the season is coming to an end, a recovery is unlikely.

2) Insufficient rains since the beginning of October have led to dryness and delayed planting throughout eastern Zambia, northern Mozambique, Malawi and southern Tanzania. Heavy rains are forecast during the next week, which should help partially alleviate dryness.

3) Prolonged dry spells since October have resulted in large rainfall deficits and below-average vegetation conditions over parts of eastern Zambia, Malawi, and western and northern Mozambique. Above-average rains are forecast in eastern Zambia, Malawi and northern Mozambique during the next week, which should help to improve drought conditions.

4) While much of South Africa has received adequate rains since the beginning of the Southern African monsoon, the eastern parts of the country have accumulated below-average rains, affecting agricultural conditions in the region. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast over the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during the next week, which should help reduce moisture deficits.

5) Below-average rains since the start of the rainy season have resulted in large moisture deficits and unfavorable ground conditions in western Madagascar. Moderate rainfall is expected across the island during the next week, which could provide some relief to poor ground conditions.