Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook October 29 – November 4, 2015

from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 28 Oct 2015
  • Mostly near-average conditions have been observed across West Africa during this past week.
  • Heavy rain continues for portions of southern Ethiopia and Somalia, raising flooding concerns in East Africa.

1) Poorly distributed rainfall has resulted in drought, which has severely impacted ground conditions and already led to livestock death across parts of north-central and eastern Ethiopia.

2) Below-average rainfall since August has led to a strengthening of moisture deficits throughout several provinces in southern South Sudan and northern Uganda. Dry conditions now stretch into Lake Victoria regions of western Kenya.

3) Persistent Below-average rainfall since August over several bimodal areas of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria has led to a strengthening of moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions resulting in drought.

4) Heavy rains over the last 2 weeks have led to swelling rivers in Somalia and Southern Ethiopia. The Shabelle River, and more nominally, the Jubba River are forecasted to be near or above flood stage. Flood risk is high for the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle and moderate for the lower portions of the Jubba River. Additional forecasted rain threatens to exasperate the situation, continuing the threat for river and flash flooding.

5) Erratic and poorly distributed rainfall over the past month has led to moisture deficits to begin the season in the Sugar cane growing region of South Africa. Vegetation indices reveal already degrading conditions on the ground.