Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Winston - Estimated Impacts Warning 31, 20 February 2016 2100 UTC

Source
Posted
Originally published

Attachments

[JTW C]S ummary :TR OPICALCY CLONE11P(W INS TON),LOCATEDAPPR OX IMATELY 154NMW ES T-NOR THW ES TOFS UV A,FIJI,HAS TR ACKEDW ES TW AR DAT11KNOTS OV ER THEPAS TS IX HOUR S … BY TAU36THES TEER ING S TR W ILLR ETR OGR ADETOTHEW ES TALLOW INGAS ECONDAR Y R IDGETO BUILDIN JUS TEAS TOFTHE S Y S TEM,ANDINR ES PONS ETCW INS TONW ILLMAKEAS HAR PTUR NPOLEW AR D.DUR INGTHIS TR ANS ITIONTOAS OUTHW AR DTR ACK,TCW INS TON W ILLTAPINTOAN UPPER LEV ELTR OUGH,ENHANCINGUPPER -LEV ELOUTFLOW ,ANDTHER EFOR EINTENS ITY IS KEPTCONS IS TENTBETW EENTAUS 36AND48.AFTER TAU72,AS THE S Y S TEM ACCELER ATES S OUTHW AR D,ITW ILLENCOUNTER INCR EAS INGLY UNFAV OR ABLE CONDITIONS AS MODER ATE TO HIGH V W S AND DECR EAS ING S S TS COMBINETO R APIDLY W EAKEN THE S TOR M.IN THE EX TENDED FOR ECAS T,AS THE CY CLONE NEAR S TR OPICALS TOR M INTENS ITY ,ALOW TO MID-LEV ELS TR LOCATED TO THE S OUTH W ILLFOR CE THE S Y S TEM W ES TW AR D ONCE AGAIN.DY NAMIC MODELGUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGR EEMENT THR OUGH TAU 48,BUT INCR EAS INGLY UNCER TAIN AFTER W AR DS R EGAR DING THEFOR W AR DS PEEDANDTIMING OFTHETUR N TOTHEW ES T.ALTHOUGHMODELGUIDANCES UPPOR TS HIGHCONFIDENCEIN THENEAR TER M,THELACKOFMODELAGR EEMENTBEY ONDTAU48LENDS LOW CONFIDENCETOTHEOV ER ALLJTW CTR ACKFOR ECAS T. MAX IMUMS IGNIFICANTW AV EHEIGHTAT201800Z IS 40FEET.