Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Winston - Estimated Impacts Warning 30, 20 February 2016 1500 UTC

Source
Posted
Originally published

Attachments

[JTWC] Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...NEAR TAU 48, TC 11P WILL REACH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM INTENSITY DUE TO AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTERWARDS, AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND RAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS. THESE DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE FINAL WEAKENING TREND. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AS THE CYCLONE NEARS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24; HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM, THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 24 LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 36 FEET.