Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Winston - Estimated Impacts Warning 28, 20 February 2016 0300 UTC

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[JTWC] Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BY TAU 36, TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN A SLOW TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, ACCELERATING AND TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 48 IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC WINSTON HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN FEATURES OF THE FIJI ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 36 AFTER IT MOVES INTO OPEN WATERS WITH VERY HIGH SSTS, WHILE REMAINING IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TURNING SOUTHWARD AND BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER TAU 48 AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AFTER THIS POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 40 FEET