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Fiji + 2 more

Tropical Cyclone Harold - Estimated Impacts Warning 21, 07 April 2020 2100 UTC

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JTWC Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY ABOUT A CLOUD-COVERED AND OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 1800Z RADAR ANALYSIS FIX FROM PGTW, BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED RADAR EYE IN THE NADI, FIJI RADAR LOOP, SUPPORTED BY A 20 NM EYE IN AT 071654Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS WELL DEFINED AND COMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE CENTER. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS INDICATED BY TEH 37 GHZ BAND, BUT THE MICROWAVE EYE IS STILL EVIDENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 FROM PGTW AND PHFO IN LIGHT OF AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RAW T# OF 6.4 (CI OF 5.4) AND A 071329Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED RETRIEVAL OF 119 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG DIVERGENT POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 25P WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED STR TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE STEADILY ACCELERATING ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 25P WILL WEAKEN STEADILY BUT SLOWLY AS VWS SLOWLY INCREASES AND SSTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL....