Food security analysis for rural population dependent on Belg pastoral and agro pastoral areas conducted in seven regions of Ethiopia indicates that, despite ongoing Humanitarian Food Assistance (HFA), an estimated 8.5 million people (21% of the 41 million people analysed) are highly food insecure in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse between July and September 2020. Of these, about 7.1 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and about 1.4 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).
Between October and December 2020, Ethiopia’s food security situation is likely to improve slightly due to the seasonal (Meher) harvests. However, below average Belg season production due to desert locust infestation, poor rainfall performance in localized areas, conflict and climate-induced displacement, high food prices fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic will likely affect the food security situation resulting in about 6.7 million people expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse in the presence of planned and funded humanitarian response.
Between January and June 2021, households relying on pastoral livelihoods typically depend on markets for food during this period. With food inflation around 24 percent in July 2020, prices are expected to remain higher than previous years during the lean season affecting market access. While safety nets are expected this period, the analysis could not include HFA because it is yet to be planned. About 11.1 million people are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse.