Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook September 18 – September 24, 2014

Map
from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 17 Sep 2014
preview
  • Seasonal shower activity weakens, leaving many anomalously dry areas as the ITCZ/ITF withdraws across the Sahel.
  • Heavy September rains lead to flooding, and damaged crops throughout many parts of Uganda.

1) Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and negatively affected the development of already-planted crops over the Arsi and West Arsi zones in central Oromia of central Ethiopia. 2) Despite a seasonable return of precipitation during August, moisture deficits have persisted in northwestern Senegal. The delayed onset of the season in July has already resulted in deteriorated conditions and affected crops on the ground. 3) An early cessation of Mar-May seasonal rainfall, as well as, an anomalously dry July have led to deteriorated crop and degraded pasture conditions across several zones in central and northern Ethiopia. 4) Poor seasonal rainfall since the middle of August has led to late-season moisture deficits, increasing the likelihood for adverse ground impacts throughout many parts of western and southern Niger, eastern Mali, and northern Nigeria. Below average rains are forecast in the region for the upcoming outlook period. 5) Several consecutive weeks of enhanced rainfall has resulted in widespread flooding, thousands of displaced people, and extensive crop damages across many provinces of eastern Uganda. 6) Poor July rains throughout several local regions in Mali have resulted in degraded crop and pastoral conditions. August and September rains have continued to help improve ground impacts.