- Although decreased rains are expected in West Africa, high ground moisture sustains the risk for floods.
- Poorly distributed rains strengthen seasonal deficits over parts of central Ethiopia, South Sudan and Uganda
1) While a recent increase in August precipitation is expected to lead to more favorable ground moisture, a delayed onset and uneven rainfall distribution observed during the June-September season may negatively impact cropping and pastoral conditions in the region.
2) Despite recent increase in rainfall, the much delayed start to the rainfall season has resulted in drought, which has severely impacted ground conditions and already led to livestock death across parts of north-central and eastern Ethiopia.
3) Heavy August rainfall has led to a saturation of ground conditions and localized flooding in several regions of West Africa. The continuation of heavy rainfall remains forecast across the region for the upcoming outlook.
4) Well below-average rainfall during August has led to a strengthening of moisture deficits throughout several provinces in southern South Sudan and northern Uganda. Below-average rainfall is expected in the region for the upcoming outlook period.