Tropical Cyclone Kenneth - Estimated Impacts: Warning 9, 25 April 2019 0300 UTC

Map
from Pacific Disaster Center
Published on 25 Apr 2019

JTWC Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM NORTHWEST OF COMOROS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PERSISTENT PINHOLE EYE AND STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL.THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY.THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON THE 242345Z AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS), IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0, BUT BELOW THE PGTW AND KNES ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS).A 242231Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 120 KTS.WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.THE 250000Z OBSERVATION FROM HAHAYA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON COMOROS ISLAND, 30 NM TO THE SOUTH, REPORTED A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 KTS AND LOWEST PRESSURE OF 998MB AT 242000Z.THE 250000Z OBSERVATION HAS WEAKENED TO 26 KTS SUSTAINED WIND AND 1002MB.LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND WELL-DEFINED WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM.FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 24S WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEAKENS.THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS TC 24S DISSIPATING OVER LAND AFTER TAU 48....