Tropical Cyclone Kenneth - Estimated Impacts: Warning 5, 24 April 2019 0300 UTC

Map
from Pacific Disaster Center
Published on 24 Apr 2019

JTWC Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COMOROS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MOSTLY MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CENTRAL CONVECTION.THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 232158Z ATMS PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) MITIGATED BY THE STORM MOTION IN PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW.ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 30C.TC 24S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE NEAR TAU 42.THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24.AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION, ESPECIALLY AFTER LANDFALL, WILL CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72.NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING UP TO 48, AFTERWARD, MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY LOSE THE WEAK VORTEX....