Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook May 7 – May 13, 2015

from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 06 May 2015
  • A continued absence of rainfall across northern Ethiopia expected to adversely affect crop and pastoral conditions.

  • Delay in onset of early monsoon rainfall continued through the 3rd dekad of April across a large portion of western Africa.

1) Since late December, an unseasonable distribution of monsoonal rainfall has resulted in anomalous dryness and poor ground conditions unfavorable for crops across several local areas in southern Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and South Africa.

2) Below-average rainfall since March, which have already impacted crop conditions across the bimodal region of northern Tanzania.

3) Poorly distributed rainfall and extended dry spells since January have led to large rainfall deficits and degraded vegetation conditions in southern Angola and northern Namibia.

4) Very poor rainfall since February combined with six consecutive weeks of virtually no rainfall since mid-March has led to large moisture deficits and rapidly deteriorating ground conditions in Ethiopia, Djibouti and eastern Eritrea. The extended mid-season absence of precipitation is likely to adversely affect cropping activities for several “Belg” producing areas of the country.

5) Late season moisture deficits associated with an early cessation of the southern Africa monsoon has negatively affect cropping conditions for parts of northern Malawi and northern Mozambique.

6) Untimely rains and prolonged dry spells have resulted in failed crops over unimodal areas in the Dodoma, Singida, Shinyanga, Tabora, and Kigoma provinces of central Tanzania.

7) Torrential amounts of rainfall triggered flooding across the Nyanza, Narok, and Nairobi regions of southern Kenya during the last week. Enhanced rainfall is forecast in the region during the next seven days.

8) Seasonally above-average moisture conditions combined with the potential for heavy rainfall forecast across eastern Ethiopia and Somalia has elevated the risk for localized flooding along the Shabelle River basin, with a lower potential remaining along the Jubba River basin in Somalia.