Angola + 14 more

Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook May 14 – May 20, 2015

Originally published


  • The first substantial rains in many weeks across rift valley regions of Ethiopia this past week may benefit grazing activities and water resources.

  • Rainfall becomes more seasonably well distributed across portions of West Africa.

1) Since late December, an unseasonable distribution of monsoonal rainfall has resulted in anomalous dryness and poor ground conditions unfavorable for crops across several local areas in southern Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and South Africa.

2) Below-average rainfall since March, which have already impacted crop conditions across the bimodal region of northern Tanzania.

3) Poorly distributed rainfall and extended dry spells since January have led to large rainfall deficits and degraded vegetation conditions in southern Angola and northern Namibia.

4) Very poor rainfall since February combined with six consecutive weeks of virtually no rainfall since mid-March has led to large moisture deficits and rapidly deteriorating ground conditions in Ethiopia, Djibouti and eastern Eritrea. The extended mid-season absence of precipitation is likely to adversely affect cropping activities for several “Belg” producing areas of the country.

5) Late season moisture deficits associated with an early cessation of the southern Africa monsoon has negatively affected cropping conditions for parts of northern Malawi and northern Mozambique.

6) Untimely rains and prolonged dry spells have resulted in failed crops over unimodal areas in the Dodoma, Singida, Shinyanga, Tabora, and Kigoma provinces of central Tanzania.

7) Persistent wetness and torrential amounts of rainfall triggered flooding for areas near Lake Victoria in Western Kenya and Nairobi. Enhanced rainfall is forecast in the region during the next seven days.

8) Seasonally above-average moisture conditions combined with the potential for heavy rainfall forecast across eastern Ethiopia and Somalia has elevated the risk for localized flooding along the Shebelle River basin, with a lower potential remaining along the Jubba River basin in southern Somalia.