Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook April 23 – April 29, 2015

Map
from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Published on 22 Apr 2015
  • Very poor rains across northern Ethiopia expected to negatively affect “Belg” season cropping activities.

  • Average to above-average rains continue across parts of Kenya, Tanzania, and southern Somalia.

1) Since late December, an unseasonable distribution of monsoonal rainfall has resulted in anomalous dryness across a broad portion of southern Africa. Low seasonal precipitation totals and untimely dry spells has negatively affected ground conditions and is likely to lead crop reductions for several local areas in southern Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and South Africa.

2) Below-average rainfall since March, which have already impacted crop conditions across the bimodal region of northern Tanzania. Increased rains over northwestern Tanzania have helped to alleviate short-term moisture deficits.

3) Poorly distributed rainfall and extended dry spells since January have led to large rainfall deficits and degraded vegetation conditions in southern Angola and northern Namibia.

4) Erratic, below-average rainfall since February combined with four consecutive weeks of little to no rainfall since mid-March has led to large moisture deficits and rapidly deteriorating ground conditions in Ethiopia. The mid-season absence of precipitation is likely to adversely affect cropping activities for several “Belg” producing areas of the country.

5) Late season moisture deficits associated with an early cessation of the southern Africa monsoon has negatively affect cropping conditions for parts of northern Malawi and northern Mozambique.