Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook April 16 – April 22, 2015
Increased amounts of rainfall leads to favorable moisture conditions over parts of eastern Ethiopia, southern Somalia.
Late season dryness observed over parts of Malawi and Mozambique.
1) Since late December, an unseasonable distribution of monsoonal rainfall has resulted in anomalous dryness across a broad portion of southern Africa. Low seasonal precipitation totals and untimely dry spells has negatively affected ground conditions and is likely to lead crop reductions for several local areas in southern Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and South Africa.
2) Below-average rainfall since March, which have already impacted crop conditions across the bimodal region of northern Tanzania. Increased rains over northwestern Tanzania have helped to alleviate short-term moisture deficits.
3) Poorly distributed rainfall and extended dry spells since January have led to large rainfall deficits and degraded vegetation conditions in southern Angola and northern Namibia.
4) Below-average moisture conditions continue across several local areas of southwestern and east-central Ethiopia. Further delay of rainfall during April is likely to adversely affect cropping activities for several “Belg” producing areas.
5) Rapidly developing moisture deficits associated with an early cessation of the southern Africa monsoon has negatively affect cropping conditions for parts of northern Malawi and northern Mozambique.
6) Torrential rainfall since early April has triggered localized flooding, livestock losses, thousands of displaced people and fatalities in parts of southern Kenya and northern Tanzania. Average to aboveaverage rains forecast may worsen ground conditions during the upcoming outlook period.